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【国泰君安】山西三维:受困于BDO、PVA低迷

國泰君安 ·  Aug 9, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company achieved revenue of 1,102 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 11.95% over the previous year, operating profit of 287.13,800 yuan, a year-on-year loss of 495.629 million yuan, a net profit loss attributable to the parent company of 35.32 million yuan and a year-on-year loss of 45.683 million yuan. EPS-0.075 yuan, ROE -0.02%, up 3.84 percentage points year on year. Operating cash flow per share was 0.38 yuan, up 292% year on year. No distribution, no increase. The company's revenue growth and loss reduction are clearly mainly due to the increase in the prices of some products. By product, PVA revenue from the main product fell 6.93% year on year, while BDO revenue increased sharply by 77% year on year. It stemmed from the fact that the price of PVA products hovered low and declined in the first half of the year, and BDO companies cut production a lot, and insufficient supply caused the price to rise rapidly from around 13,000 yuan/ton to around 20,000 yuan/ton. However, due to the high cost of calcium carbide and the low operating rate due to insufficient coke oven gas, etc., the overall gross margin was only 9.41%. Although it was a slight increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous year, the gross margin of products such as BDO and PTMEG, which once had a gross margin of up to 40%, is still at an historically low level, and BDO has a gross margin of only about 15%. In the past month, BDO maintenance companies have resumed work one after another. Supply has increased while downstream demand is low. BDO prices have quickly fallen back to around 17,000 yuan/ton. In addition, BDO's production expansion has mostly occurred, and the company's maleic anhydride method BDO is also in the test run period. The lack of raw materials and high prices will affect its normal production. Therefore, we are not optimistic about BDO's future market trends and the future performance of the company's BDO business. The company has established a holding subsidiary, Shanxi Sanwei Reide Coking Co., Ltd., to extend the industrial chain from coking, hydrogen, and fine chemicals. Relying on Yangmei Group, the actual controlling shareholder, to expand the scope of business and ease the bottlenecks in the company's development should be a better direction for the company's development. Due to the relatively high decline in BDO, the company's operations are expected to improve slightly in the second half of the year, and losses will continue to decrease in the third quarter. We expect a weak profit of 52 million yuan and EPS of 0.11 yuan for the whole year. Maintain a neutral rating.

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