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【国泰君安】山西三维:业绩好转,关注原料供应和BDO价格

國泰君安 ·  Dec 15, 2010 00:00  · Researches

In the first half of this year, due to high costs of raw materials such as calcium carbide and low product prices, and serious shortages of raw materials such as crude benzene, maleic anhydride, and coke oven gas due to too low operating rates of coking, the company's newly built crude benzene refining and maleic anhydride BDO projects were insufficient or even stopped, and profits remained weak or in loss. The company lost 35.32 million yuan in the first half of the year, with losses of 14.32 million yuan and 21 million yuan respectively in the first and second quarters, with gross margins of 11.8% and 8.71% respectively. The third quarter began to turn losses into profit and profit of 29.87 million yuan, and gross margin rebounded to 13.35%. The reason for the improvement in performance was that the price of BDO products, the dominant product, continued to rise in the face of downstream recovery, partial supply constraints, and a sharp drop in period costs. Judging from current market demand, BDO's new production capacity will far exceed market demand, and the BDO market will face the risk of overcapacity in the future. However, there has been an increase in consumption in the corresponding downstream sector, which can absorb some of the additional production capacity. Meanwhile, high companies with petroleum and chemical products also support BDO prices from a cost perspective. Furthermore, due to technical and other reasons, some companies have stopped production and maintenance more, and actual production has decreased, so BDO's development space is more optimistic than originally anticipated. Therefore, as the first BDO manufacturer in China, compared with subsequent domestic BDO companies, Shanxi Sanwei has maintained the advantage of large-scale, high-tech production. Its high sensitivity to BDO prices and the absolute stability of production technology will be the biggest beneficiaries of the recovery in BDO prices. The company has set a development goal of “achieving 10 billion in three dimensions in five years”. It will expand upstream and downstream through new construction, mergers and acquisitions, etc., and expand the industrial chain to double revenue, so that the company once again has medium- to long-term investment value. The company's current and next risk still lies in the insufficient supply of coking raw materials. Based on relatively optimistic expectations, we expect the company's EPS for 10-12 years to be 0.05 yuan, 0.5 yuan, and 0.74 yuan, respectively. The corresponding dynamic PE for 11 and 12 years is 21x and 14x, respectively. An inflection point in performance has emerged, and there is great flexibility in the price and operating rate of the BDO industry chain, so careful suggestions are made to increase holdings. Long-term attention is recommended.

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