share_log

【东北证券】双环科技调研简报:纯碱氯化铵价格均上涨,给予“谨慎推荐”评级

東北證券 ·  May 27, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company currently has an equity production capacity of 1.7 million tons of co-alkali soda ash and ammonium chloride, 1.3 million tons of raw salt headquarters, and 1 million tons of Chongqing Yihua Chemical, which can all meet its own needs. In the future, Chongqing Yihua Chemical will increase the company's soda ash equity production capacity to 1.8 million tons through technical reforms. The company is located in Yingcheng, Hubei. There are only two soda ash companies in Hubei: Shuanghuan Technology and Xindu Chemical, with a total production capacity of 1.35 million tons. In April, the two enterprises in Hubei produced a total of 133,592 tons of soda ash, with a high operating rate. The company is a domestic listed company that has benefited from rising soda ash prices and has the greatest flexibility in performance growth. The average annual price of soda ash increased by 100 yuan, and the company's EPS increased by about 0.20 yuan. Soda ash prices are rising amid an “electricity shortage,” and we believe that the current rise in soda ash prices supports more logic. The phenomenon of tight domestic electricity consumption is likely to become a continuous phenomenon in the next two years. Soda ash is mainly distributed in East China and North China. As of summer, the electricity situation in East China and North China is quite severe, and the local soda ash operating rate may be lower than the national average. The company currently has a factory price of 1900-2,000 yuan/ton for light soda ash and 1950-2050 yuan/ton for heavy soda ash. Construction has started at full capacity, and inventory is gradually decreasing. The company's current raw salt manufacturing cost is around 200 yuan/ton. According to estimates, the current gross margin of soda ash should be higher than 25%. The recent good performance of the ammonium chloride market is mainly driven by exports to the Indian market. The company's ammonium chloride is mainly dry ammonium, and the current price including tax is over 800 yuan/ton. However, there is still uncertainty about the sustainability of the increase in the price of ammonium chloride. Qinyu Coal, a subsidiary of the company, has an average annual extraction volume of 400,000 to 600,000 tons, lost performance in 2010, and is currently undergoing consolidation. Yihua Real Estate's “Yihua Mountain Language City” is currently being pre-sold. We will not consider the performance improvement brought about by this revenue for the time being. The current stock price corresponding to the company's 2011 PE is 22 times that of PE, giving a “careful recommendation” rating risk warning: the prices of major products have fallen.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment