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【东北证券】双环科技中报点评:联碱双品涨价促业绩大涨,年增长率有望保持

東北證券 ·  Aug 10, 2011 00:00  · Researches

In the first half of the 2011 interim report, the company achieved total operating income of 2,222 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.64%, net profit of 195 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 577.94%, and basic earnings per share of 0.42 yuan. The gross margin of the company's co-alkali products was 26.56%, up 7.19% from the same period last year. The reason for the sharp increase in the company's performance in the first half of the year was mainly due to the sharp rise in the prices of the two major alkali products - soda ash and ammonium chloride - in the same direction. The company's current soda ash prices remain high. The factory price of soda ash in the Hubei headquarters is 1,900 yuan/ton, and the factory price of soda ash in Yihua, Chongqing is 1,850 yuan/ton. The factory price of dry ammonium for agricultural use is 1,250 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash fluctuates greatly, so we expect a sharp drop in price to be less likely. There is a serious overcapacity of soda ash production. The price increase in the first half of the year stemmed from tight domestic electricity consumption, which reduced the average operating rate of the soda ash industry, while the downstream glass industry's large investment in production capacity and steady growth in output increased the momentum of soda ash prices. Currently, the performance of the domestic soda ash industry varies from region to region, and is generally on the sidelines. However, due to the peak of electricity consumption in summer and the peak season in September and October, it is unlikely that the price of soda ash will drop sharply. The ammonium chloride market continues to perform well. The company is a domestic listed company that has benefited from rising soda ash prices and has the greatest flexibility in performance growth. For every 100 yuan the average annual price of soda ash increases, the company's EPS thickens by about 0.2 yuan, and so is the elasticity of ammonium chloride. The current performance of the ammonium chloride market is good, and the profit of the alkali method company is better than that of the ammonium alkali method company. Qinyu Coal, a subsidiary of the company, has an average annual extraction volume of 400,000 to 600,000 tons, lost performance in 2010, and is currently undergoing consolidation. Yihua Real Estate's “Yihua Mountain Language City” is currently being pre-sold. We will not consider the performance improvement brought about by this revenue for the time being. Risk warning: There is a risk that product prices will fluctuate, and raw material prices will rise sharply.

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