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【东北证券】西安饮食:资本运作加速,“老字号”蕴藏新转机

東北證券 ·  May 22, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Report summary: The company's main business is currently under pressure. The acquisition of Jiahe Yipin, and the “time-honored brand” has a new turning point: affected by the control of “three public consumption,” the company's main catering business has been sluggish in recent years, and performance is under pressure. The company announced on the evening of April 6 that it intends to acquire 100% of Jiahe Yipin's shares through a non-public offering of shares. We believe that this acquisition is the first step in the company's external expansion and capital operation, and will bring about a turning point in the company's operations and an increase in performance. The gambling agreement highlights good performance expectations: Jiahe Yipin promises the target company's 2015-2019 performance that the net profit amount will not be lower than RMB 30 million, RMB 42 million, RMB 55 million, RMB 64 million, and RMB 69 million, respectively. We believe that the controlling shareholder of the target company has a five-year performance commitment and a long unlocking period, fully demonstrating their firm confidence in Jiahe Yipin's good performance expectations and the company's development prospects. Furthermore, performance compensation and reward agreements signed by both parties to the transaction are conducive to fully motivating the controlling shareholders of the target company to fulfill their performance commitments. Considering that Xi'an Catering's net profit in 2014 was 11.066 million yuan, this acquisition will significantly increase the company's performance. The company's transformation into popular catering and comprehensive catering O2O layout is in line with industry trends. After the company acquires Jiahe Yipin, it is expected to achieve a win-win goal of 1+1 greater than 2 through complementary businesses. Follow-up highlights are frequent: 1) State-owned enterprise reform plus the Belt and Road: In the context of state-owned enterprise reform and the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, the Xi'an tourism industry will usher in new opportunities for development. The company's major stock East-West Travel Group will undoubtedly face unprecedented policy support and development opportunities, and Xi'an food will benefit as well. 2) Acceleration of capital operations: The company proposed to make full use of the capital market as a platform to vigorously promote capital operations, accelerate epitaxial expansion, and speed up the pace of mergers and acquisitions. We strive to complete, launch, and reserve one merger and acquisition project every year, which plays an important role in the company's leapfrog development. The company's market value is expected to exceed 10 billion dollars within 3 years. Profit forecast and investment strategy: The company's acquisition of Jiahe Yipin took the first step in capital operation. It will later benefit from Xi'an's state-owned enterprise reform and the Belt and Road Initiative. The company's capital operations are expected to accelerate. We expect the company's EPS for 2015-2017 to be 0.05 yuan, 0.07 yuan, and 0.09 yuan respectively. The company's current stock price is 11.60 yuan, corresponding to dynamic PE 232 times, 166 times, and 129 times. Although the company's current valuation level is high, considering the flexible space for subsequent valuations, we gave the company an “increase in holdings” rating for the first time. Risk warning: Increased issuance falls short of expectations, capital operation falls short of expectations, etc.

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