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【华泰联合证券】双环科技:价格快速上涨,4季度业绩可期

華泰聯合證券 ·  Oct 25, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Shuanghuan Technology announced its 2010 three-quarter report: In the first three quarters of 2010, it achieved a total sales revenue of 2,525 billion yuan, an increase of 13.62% over the previous year, and achieved net profit of 30.76 million yuan, which significantly reversed losses over the previous year. Earnings per share were 0.066 yuan, an increase of 0.089 yuan over the previous year. Among them, we achieved earnings of 0.004 yuan per share in a single quarter in the 3rd quarter, which is in line with our expectations. Product prices remained stable and remained marginal in the 3rd quarter. The company maintained a marginal profit in the 3rd quarter, which was the same as the 2nd quarter results. The main reason is that the prices of the main products, soda ash and ammonium chloride, remained stable in the 3rd quarter and did not change much. Companies that relied on non-operating income were able to avoid losses in the 3rd quarter. We believe that the loss situation in the soda ash industry as a whole is unsustainable. It also shows that Chongqing Salt Chemical has had an adverse impact on financial indicators. The company consolidated Chongqing Salt Chemical in the 3rd quarter. Due to the current weak profitability of Chongqing Yanhua, the company's balance ratio further increased from 60.92% in the 2nd quarter to 68.77% in the 3rd quarter, and financial expenses increased month-on-month, leading to a year-on-year decline in turnover. Financial pressure may cause delays in the company's acquisition of minority shareholders' interests in Yihua, Chongqing. Affected by energy saving and emission reduction and electricity restrictions, China's soda ash production continued to decline in the 3rd quarter. The glass industry entered the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter. The decline in soda ash production led to a rapid rise in prices in October, with an increase of nearly 50%. Domestic urea prices will drive the price of ammonium chloride to rise. The company's ammonium chloride price has recently risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the market has begun to pick up. The company's performance is very sensitive to product prices. For every 100 yuan increase in the price of two tons, the company's performance increases by 0.19 yuan/share. The company's performance forecasts for 2010 to 2012 were raised to 0.2 yuan, 0.35 yuan, and 0.48 yuan, respectively. The company's current stock price is 47.5 times, 27.14 times, and 19.79 times PE from 2010 to 2012, respectively. The current price of soda ash has exceeded our forecast, and there is still a possibility that the company's performance will continue to rise. Maintaining an increase in the rating of soda ash, investors are advised to pay attention to the relevant investment opportunities brought about by the rise in soda ash prices. Main risk: Regulatory policies in the downstream real estate industry have exceeded expectations, causing downstream consumption of soda ash to be affected. Domestic fertilizer prices are lower than expected due to weather reasons or policy adjustments.

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