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【东莞证券】双环科技三季报点评:纯碱价格上涨致业绩暴增

[Dongguan Securities] comments on the third quarterly report of Shuanghuan Technology: soda ash prices have led to a surge in performance.

東莞證券 ·  Oct 31, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Performance increased sharply from the same period last year, but declined slightly from the previous month. From July to September 2011, the company achieved operating income of 1.1632893 billion yuan, an increase of 29.41% over the same period last year, a decrease of 9.91%. The net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 136.8932 million yuan, with a discount of 0.30 yuan per share, a year-on-year increase of 7011.97% and a decrease of 15.45%. From January to September 2011, the company achieved a cumulative operating income of 3.3856221 billion yuan, an increase of 34.07% over the same period last year. The net profit belonging to the shareholders of the listed company was 332.3614 million yuan, or 0.72 yuan per share, an increase of 990.91% over the same period last year.

The sharp increase in income and gross profit margin caused by the rise in product prices is the main reason for the big increase in performance compared with the same period last year. The company's comprehensive gross profit margin in the third quarter was 31.11%, a sharp increase of 14.44% over the same period last year. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the price of soda has been rising continuously, and the trading price of soda in the Yangtze River Delta has risen from 1260 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 2000 yuan / ton at present, directly causing the average price in the third quarter to rise by 291.43 yuan / ton (before tax) compared with the same period last year, an increase of 21.12%. In addition, the company is located in the Yunying basin, known as the "paste capital salt sea". The proved reserves of raw salt are more than 10 billion tons, of which 1 billion tons belong to the company, 1.3 million tons / year of the original salt production capacity of the company and 1 million tons / year of Chongqing Yihua chemical industry. it can fully meet the demand for self-use and ensure that the company can fully enjoy the rising dividends of product prices, resulting in a substantial increase in gross profit margin.

The increase in expense rate compared with the previous month is the main reason for the slight decline in performance. The company's three-item expense rate in the third quarter was 16.53%, down 1.95% from the same period last year, but increased by 3.63% from the previous quarter. The increase in expenses in the third quarter resulted in a 25.7697 million yuan decrease in operating profit in the current period, accounting for 69.43% of the total operating profit reduction, which is the main reason for the slight decline in the current performance compared with the same period last year.

The shortage of electricity and the rapid growth downstream are the main reasons for the rise in soda ash prices, and prices are expected to remain in the peak season in the fourth quarter. Soda ash is a high energy-consuming industry, with electricity consumption of 750kWh per ton. According to the annual output of 20.47 million tons in 2010, the total electricity consumption is 15.35 billion kWh, accounting for 0.37% of the electricity consumption of the whole society in 2010. Since March this year, the situation of "power shortage" caused by factors such as insufficient installed capacity of thermal power and the contradiction between coal and electricity prices has become more and more serious. under the natural logic of limiting power and production, the supply of soda ash is insufficient; at the same time, the main downstream glass and alumina industries still maintain rapid growth, with output growth rates of 20% and 17% respectively. The contradiction between supply and demand led to a sharp rise in soda ash prices. As the fourth quarter is the peak season of soda ash consumption, and the above supply problems can not be solved in the short term, soda ash prices are expected to be maintained.

It is expected that the high price of ammonium chloride will fall in the fourth quarter, which will affect the company's performance to a certain extent. Since July, driven by the export of binary compound fertilizer and the procurement of raw materials for autumn sowing fertilizer, the price of ammonium chloride has risen again, and the ex-factory price of dry ammonium has increased by 100-150 yuan / ton to 1100 yuan / ton. However, due to the tightening of national export policy and fierce competition for nitrogen fertilizer, the price of ammonium chloride is expected to fall in the fourth quarter, but considering that ammonium chloride still has price advantages over other nitrogen fertilizers and the demand for reserve fertilizer in winter. The decline in prices will be more moderate.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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