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【兴业证券】鲁能泰山:纳入优质发电资产引发价值重估

[Societe Generale Securities] Luneng Taishan: revaluation caused by the inclusion of high-quality power generation assets

興業證券 ·  Jan 29, 2008 00:00  · Researches

Before taking into account the installed capacity of the Feixian power plant, Luneng Taishan has an installed capacity of about 1 million kilowatts, which is only equivalent to a medium-sized power plant, but the strength of Luneng Development Group, a subsidiary of Luneng Group's related industries, should not be underestimated. According to the latest data of Luneng Group, the operating power generation under the group has an installed capacity of 11.32 million kilowatts and an annual coal production capacity of 13.31 million tons. It can be seen that at present, Luneng Taishan power generation capacity accounts for only about 10% of Luneng Group's related assets, and the new power generation assets of Luneng Development from January to September 2007 alone are equivalent to the power generation installed capacity of three Luneng Taishan. The proportion of coal resources is even smaller, with Luneng Taishan's existing Xizhou coal mine of only 300000 tons, accounting for only 2.3 per cent of the assets related to major shareholders.

From the point of view of listed companies, the strategic goal of the company is to expand and strengthen the main power industry and take the development road of coal-power integration industry. The company will continue to increase the investment in power assets, increase the size of generator sets, and gradually reduce the proportion of cables in the company's main revenue.

The company hopes to solve the equity problem of the actual controller Luneng Group as soon as possible, so that the development of the company will be on the right track. The company has basically dealt with the unfavorable factors that affect the company's performance, and can travel light in 2008 to achieve steady development.

The quality of power generation assets is the most important index to measure the power generation listed companies, the company's power generation assets are constantly improving, the company's original power equipment assets have been stripped, and only Qufu Cable Company with stable profits has been retained in addition to the company's power generation assets. the trend in the future is to gradually divest the listed companies. From this point of view, the company's main business is becoming more and more clear, and the profit prospects for 2008 and beyond are more clear. according to the performance forecast, the company's EPS in 2007 is between-0.093 and 0.081 yuan. Without considering the expectation of subsequent asset injection, the company is expected to have an EPS of 0.22 yuan for the whole year of 2008. According to the calculation of 40 times PPUE in 2008, the reasonable price of the company is 8.8 yuan, considering that the subsequent asset injection of the group is still possible. We give the company a "recommended" rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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