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【国元证券】永安林业:负面因素逐渐褪去,业绩有望温和回暖

國元證券 ·  Sep 1, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company announced the 2010 interim report that the company achieved operating income of 125 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.74%; operating profit - 014 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 87.58%; realized net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company - 012 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 768%; basic income per share - 0.06 yuan, achieved basic EPS of -006 yuan. Conclusion: Expected earnings per share for 2010-2012: -0.02 yuan, 0.03 yuan, 0.05 yuan; corresponding to the 2011-2012 dynamic price-earnings ratio: 303x, 182x; Giving the company a “neutral” investment rating Text: Overall performance declined, Maori had a double whammy: the company's main business was timber and wood-based panels. During the reporting period, the company's timber business achieved revenue of 26.27 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.23%, and a gross profit ratio of 41.25%, a sharp decrease of 40.46% over the previous year; the wood-based panel business achieved revenue of 83.38 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.06%, and a gross profit margin of 8.08%, a sharp increase of 72.33% over the previous year; there are two main reasons for the sharp decline in timber gross profit. The weather aspect is due to transportation difficulties due to rainfall and rising harvesting costs, which are characterized by chance and unsustainability. Furthermore, deforestation conditions during the reporting period were poor, and costs were high. Abundant resources, smooth expansion of production capacity: The company is rich in forest resources. It has 1.81 million mu of forestry resources, ranking sixth in the country and number one in Fujian. Among them are 1.61 million mu of commercial forest and 200,000 mu of ecological forest. The harvesting target is about 60,000 cubic meters per mu, and the annual timber output is about 100,000 cubic meters of logs and 100,000 cubic meters of timber. The company's current two wood-based panel production lines are the 30,000 cubic meter production line built in 1997 and the 80,000 cubic meter production line built in 2003. The current competitiveness of these two production lines is weak, which affects the profit level of the wood-based panel business. The construction of the company's key project in Fujian Province with an annual output of 210,000 cubic meters of medium fiber board and forest paper is progressing smoothly. The production line is expected to be completed and put into operation as scheduled in the fourth quarter of '10; the production line has introduced the latest equipment and technology, products have been upgraded, costs have been reduced, and profitability will be increased. The adverse factors are gradually eliminated, and performance is expected to pick up: the decline in performance caused by rainfall is expected to be eliminated in the second half of the year, and with the end of harvesting in forest areas with poor harvesting conditions, the cost of deforestation is also expected to drop. At the same time, the company's new production capacity is an alternative relationship with its backward small production capacity. As the new production capacity is gradually put into production and operation enters a normal track, it is also expected to be a positive driving factor for cost reduction. Currently, the company's main tree species are cedar, horsetail pine, and eucalyptus. The two types of cedar and horsetail pine account for 800,000 mu, and there are 200,000 mu of eucalyptus, all of which can be cut down. Currently, it is mainly limited by policy factors, and the amount of deforestation is limited. As the country's forestry reform continues to advance, there is considerable room for future deforestation volume to rise. Investment rating: Expected earnings per share for 2010-2012: -0.02 yuan, 0.03 yuan, 0.05 yuan; corresponding to the 2011-2012 dynamic price-earnings ratio: 303x, 182x; giving the company a “neutral” investment rating

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