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【江南证券】永安林业:林业资源丰富 但盈利大幅增长还取决于木材产量

中航證券 ·  May 19, 2008 00:00  · Researches

The company is rich in forestry resources. The forest area has grown from 810,000 mu at the beginning of the listing to the current 1.81 million mu, including about 995,000 mu of artificial forest and 815,000 mu of natural forest; about 800,000 mu of public welfare forest, including 200,000 mu of natural forest and 1.01 million mu of commercial forest, of which fir trees and horsetail pine account for about 800,000 mu and eucalyptus trees. Timber products are the company's main source of profit. Due to restrictions on national policies and the company's forest resource harvesting conditions, it is difficult for the company's timber production to increase significantly in the next few years. Future increases in timber profit levels can only depend on rising product prices. In order to further accelerate the pace of the company's integrated forest board construction and give full play to the company's advantages in terms of resources and brands, the company decided to invest about 570 million yuan to build a 210,000 cubic meter medium density fiberboard renovation and expansion project and support a 160,000 mu fast-growing eucalyptus raw forest base project. The implementation of this project will increase the production and profitability of MDF. After the project is completed, it can contribute about 80 million yuan in profits to the company every year. The company's Yonglin Blue Panther flooring was rated as a famous brand product in China, and the product quality is excellent. However, the Blue Panther branch is limited by the operating mechanism of the enterprise and lacks market competitiveness. The company decided to entrust the general domestic distribution rights of Yonglin Blue Panther Flooring to Fujian Huiyang Forestry Co., Ltd. to enhance brand awareness and increase the market share of the product. In order to further strengthen cooperation with Huihao Company of the United States in the field of forestry, we will draw on and apply successful experiences in sustainable development of advanced international forest management, in particular the introduction of excellent varieties and the business model of fast-growing and productive forests, as well as various advanced forest management experiences. On the premise of ensuring asset preservation and appreciation, the company decided to entrust the forest resources belonging to the Fuzhuang farming site of its subsidiary Forest Management Branch to Fujian Yonghui Forestry Co., Ltd. (Yongan Forestry holds 49% of the shares and Hong Kong Huihao holds 51% of the shares). The company decided to close the Sanming wood-based panel factory. The closure of the Sanming wood-based panel factory reduced the company's burden and disposed of aging production equipment. The company could concentrate manpower, material resources and financial resources to introduce new and more advanced production lines, improve the company's production technology and product quality, and gradually increase the contribution rate of the wood-based panel business to the company's profitability. The company's price-earnings ratio in 2008 and 2009 was 139 times and 90 times, respectively. Considering that the company has abundant forestry resources, but timber production is limited, current performance expectations are lower than previous expectations, so we downgraded our investment rating from “buy” to “hold”.

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