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【海通证券】双环科技:纯碱价格暴涨,第四季度业绩或现拐点

海通證券 ·  Oct 27, 2010 00:00  · Researches

In this round of sharp rise in soda ash prices, Shuanghuan Technology has benefited greatly. The company has a soda ash production capacity of 1.8 million tons, with a production capacity of 38.78 tons per 10,000 shares. For every increase in soda ash prices, 200 yuan/ton, the company's EPS increases by 0.58 yuan. The performance elasticity is the highest. If the profit of ammonium chloride, a by-product, is considered, performance elasticity is even greater. Based on our judgment on the strengthening of short-term prices in the soda ash industry, assuming that the average price of soda ash in the fourth quarter of 2010 was 2,000 yuan/ton, the average gross profit of two tons of soda ash plus ammonium chloride was 950 yuan, the average price of soda ash in 2011 was 1,800 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of two tons of soda ash and ammonium chloride was 600 yuan. We expect the company to achieve earnings per share of 0.45 and 0.95 yuan this year and next two years. The closing price of Shuanghuan Technology is 9.50 yuan on October 26, corresponding to 2010 and 2011 PE of 21 to 10 times. We maintain the view that Shuanghuan Technology was recommended in the Soda Ash Industry Report on October 19 and October 25, 2010, and gave it a “buy” rating for the first time.

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