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【民生证券】厦门信达:光电产业布局已显成功态势

民生證券 ·  Apr 3, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Market Valuation Free Cash Flow Valuation (FCFF) assumes that a company's free cash flow will grow steadily at a sustainable growth rate starting in 2018. Under the condition that the weighted cost of capital (WACC) is 11.25% and the sustainable growth is 3.00%, the intrinsic value of the company's share is 8.54 yuan. According to the results of the FCFF sensitivity analysis, the reasonable value is between 6.62 yuan/share and 10.97 yuan/share. According to the industry relative valuation method (PE), judging from the current operation and future development of Xiamen Cinda (000701), we believe that the company will rely on the West Coast Economic Zone to obtain good development opportunities, maintain a relatively rapid growth rate in the next 3 to 5 years, and at the same time make a big difference in the LED optoelectronics industry. We believe that in 2009, Xiamen Cinda can achieve 0.38 yuan/share, combining the three main business directions of Xiamen Cinda (000701). We think the reasonable valuation of PE is 25 times, and the reasonable price in 2009 is 9.50 yuan/share. Valuation results After analyzing the current main business and asset conditions of Xiamen Cinda (000701), we believe that its current market value is greatly underestimated, and that the complete release of its optoelectronic production capacity in 2009 and its location in the core region of the Haixi economic circle will benefit the company's development in the long term. Based on the comprehensive free cash flow valuation and the relative valuation of industry PE, we believe that the reasonable value of each share of Xiamen Cinda in 2009 was 8.54 yuan/share - 9.50 yuan/share, and its value center was 9.02 yuan/share. The corresponding price-earnings ratios for 2009, 2010, and 2011 were 23.74 times, 16.40 times, and 11.56 times, respectively. We give Xiamen Cinda (000701) a strong recommendation rating and recommend that investors in the secondary market pay active attention.

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