According to the quarterly report of 2009, the company's operating income from January to September was 2.248 billion yuan, down 7.99% from the same period last year; operating profit was 300 million yuan, up 69.66% from the same period last year; net profit belonging to the parent company was 154 million yuan, up 80.85% from the same period last year; and diluted earnings per share was 0.22 yuan.
Review of the company's operating performance from January to September: the company is mainly engaged in the production and sales of PET bottles, bottle embryos and their supporting products; during the reporting period, although the company's sales volume of PET bottles increased, but affected by a large decline in product prices, the company's operating income decreased by 7.99% compared with the same period last year. As the decline in the price of raw materials was greater than that of product prices, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin increased sharply by 5.09 percentage points to 27.83% compared with the same period last year. In addition, affected by a sharp drop in financial expenses by 29.83%, the expense rate during the period of the company decreased by 0.96 percentage points to 14.52%. The increase in gross profit margin and the decline in the rate of expenses during the period have led to a substantial increase in the company's operating profit and net profit belonging to the parent company.
The gross profit margin is high, and there is great uncertainty about whether it can continue in the future: the company's comprehensive gross profit margin in the first and third quarters of this year is 23.53%, 28.86% and 29.84% respectively, showing a trend of increasing quarter by quarter. The level of gross profit margin of more than 28% in a single quarter is already a new high in recent years, and it is uncertain whether it can be sustained in the future.
The fourth quarter is the traditional off-season: the downstream customers of the company's PET bottles and its ancillary products are mainly well-known enterprises such as Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo Inc and Uni-President Group, as soft drinks are generally the off-season for consumption in the fourth quarter, October-December is also the off-season for the company; the net profit attributed to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2006-2008 is 7.67 million and-3085 million and-38.83 million respectively; it is expected that the company will still suffer a small loss in the fourth quarter of this year.
Earnings forecast and investment rating: the company's EPS from 2009 to 2011 is expected to be 0.20,0.19,0.23 yuan respectively, and the dynamic PE corresponding to the closing price of 6.66yuan on October 23rd is 33 times, 35 times and 30 times respectively; considering the greater uncertainty about whether the company's future rapid growth can continue, and the company does not currently have the advantage of valuation, we maintain its "neutral" investment rating.
Risk hints: the risk of sharp fluctuations in the prices of raw materials such as ⑴ polyester chips; the risk of ⑵ macroeconomic failure to stabilize effectively and the risk of slowing downstream demand growth; systemic risks in ⑶ capital markets.