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【江南证券】永安林业:拐点已现 08年业绩有望加速增长

中航證券 ·  Apr 8, 2008 00:00  · Researches

During the reporting period, the company's main business revenue was 457.312,200 yuan, an increase of 32.24% over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the company's timber and medium and high fiber board sales; among them, the main business revenue for wood products was 142.3072 million yuan, an increase of 99.30% over the previous year, and 286.3874 million yuan for secondary wood processing products, an increase of 33.52% over the previous year. The share of timber in main business revenue increased from 25% last year to 33% this year. In 2007, the company achieved net profit of 259.452 million yuan and earnings per share of 0.13 yuan. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses such as asset sales, the company's earnings per share were 0.06 yuan, an increase of about 73% over the performance of the first three quarters of 2007. The increase in the company's performance is partly due to the improvement of management standards, such as adhering to the business philosophy of “branded management, standardized management, and market-based operation”. At the same time, the company vigorously developed forestry resources and promoted the development of the company's integrated forest board industry through forest management boards; on the other hand, the company's timber production increased slightly, while timber prices increased by about 20% during the 2007 forestry boom, which led to an increase in the company's performance. The increase in the company's performance in 2008 was mainly due to the increase in timber production. Compared with the company's man-made board business, the gross margin of timber products was higher, which could reach about 50%, while the gross margin of wood-based panels was less than 20%. In 2008, the company's wood-based panel production is expected to increase by no more than 10%, while the company's timber production is expected to increase quite a bit this year, mainly because the 600,000 mu of eucalyptus trees in the first and second phases of the rapid growth and yield forest invested in 2000 have gradually entered the main harvesting period since last year. It is expected that production will increase by 300,000 tons this year, which can bring about 60 million tons of net profit to the company. The company's earnings per share in 2008-2010 were 0.43 yuan, 0.54 yuan and 0.59 yuan, respectively. Compared to the price-earnings ratio of 2008 and 2009, which were 22.38 times and 19.49 times, we still maintain a “buy” investment rating.

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