The valuation is too high, there is room for imagination in capital operation, and the "overweight" rating is maintained temporarily. We optimistically expect that the company's EPS for 11-12 years will be 0.35 yuan and 0.43 yuan respectively, and the current stock price (12.01 yuan) will reach 34 times and 28 times respectively for 11 years and 12 years PE. Compared with Zijiang, which belongs to the same PET packaging, the valuation is obviously on the high side, which includes the premium of the market to the CVC exit mode and the company's expected integration, and temporarily maintains the "overweight" rating.

The performance of the annual report is fully in line with expectations. Over the past 10 years, the company achieved sales revenue of 3.348 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5% over the same period last year; net profit (belonging to shareholders of listed companies) was 145 million yuan, an increase of 8.0% over the same period last year; and EPS0.19 yuan after full dilution was fully in line with our expectations. The net cash flow generated by the company's operating activities per share is 0.7 yuan. The allocation plan is 0.9 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares transferred to 7 shares.

Q4 gross profit margin fell significantly + management expenses warped, resulting in a sharp decline in quarterly performance. Q4 realized revenue of 699 million yuan, down 7.2% from the same period last year, and 33.2% month-on-month due to off-season factors. Under the influence of insufficient operating rate and rising pressure on raw material costs, the company's Q4 gross profit margin fell sharply to 16.8% (vsQ326.2%), while the management expense rate reached 10.4% at the end of the year (vsQ36.2%), and the gross profit margin declined and management expenses warped, resulting in a loss of 18.5677 million yuan for Q4. The off-season effect caused the company to "habitually shock" in the fourth quarter.

Beverage packaging business grows steadily with the downstream, and additional investment projects are determined to lay the foundation for future growth. Beverage packaging products are the company's main source of income and profit (80% of income and 88% of profits in 10 years). With the improvement of urbanization rate and the improvement of residents' living standards, as well as Liangle's expansion of investment in China, the soft drink consumption market downstream of the company has been optimistic for a long time. The company has raised funds (net about 469 million yuan) to expand the bottle blank line and blow bottle line to further improve the layout of the beverage packaging market. Lay the foundation for long-term development in the future.

Core hypothetical risk: integration expectations change and upstream raw material prices fluctuate significantly.