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【华泰证券】沈阳化工:丙烯酸景气度将下滑,CPP项目尚有潜力可挖

華泰證券 ·  Mar 29, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The company recently released its 2011 annual report. During the reporting period, it achieved operating income of 10.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%, net profit of 210 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and earnings per share of 0.32 yuan. The main driving force behind the company's revenue growth in 2011 came from the increase in sales revenue of resin, caustic soda, propylene oxide, and polyethylene and propylene products in CPP projects. The main reason for the increase in revenue and the lack of profit was the decline in comprehensive gross margin. In 2011, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 10.1%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous year. Looking ahead, by product, the profitability of paste resin and caustic soda was high in 2011 and will decline somewhat in 2012. The profitability of acrylic acid and ester products, which have been booming in the past two years, declined markedly in the second half of last year, and it is expected that it will be difficult to resume high prosperity in 2012. It is worth noting that the production of polyethylene and propylene in the CPP project did not fully reach the design production capacity. In April of last year, the company received an import quota of 720,000 tons of crude oil, which will have a positive impact on the production capacity of the company's CPP project. Furthermore, the recent increase in domestic refined oil prices will help restore the profitability of the company's gasoline and diesel products. There are positive and negative factors in the company's operation in 2012. Overall, the profit forecast results show that in 2012, 2013, and 2014, the company's earnings per share were 0.23 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.53 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding price-earnings ratio levels were 26.2 times, 16.5 times, and 11.2 times, respectively. In terms of valuation, the 2012 valuation was high compared to the average in the chemical industry, giving it a “wait and see” rating.

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