share_log

【招商证券】永安林业:上半年致亏因素下半年好转

招商證券 ·  Aug 10, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company is rich in forest resources. It has 1.81 million mu of forest, of which 1.16 million mu of commercial forest and 200,000 mu of ecological forest. The harvesting index is about 60,000 cubic meters per mu, and the annual timber production is about 100,000 cubic meters of logs and 100,000 cubic meters of branches. The construction of a key project in Fujian Province with an annual output of 210,000 cubic meters of medium fiber board forest paper is progressing smoothly. After completion, the increase is expected to be completed and put into operation in the fourth quarter. After completion, the company is expected to grow to 25-300,000 square meters of board in the medium term. The specific production capacity climbing situation depends on: (1) the availability of raw materials; (2) the market sales situation. The factors of poor performance in the past two years will gradually improve: (1) forest clean-up chemical companies and backward production capacity, generating costs; (2) recent poor deforestation conditions (limited deforestation conditions, limited visibility of slopes and main roads), and high costs. The disposal of old assets has been completed. In addition, the 210,000 medium fiber board supporting eucalyptus forest is slightly better, and the company's costs will gradually drop in the next few years. (3) The profitability of the Phase III MDF project is better than the old production capacity. The forecast loss in the interim report is temporary. The interim report predicts that the company expects to lose about 12 million yuan in January-June. The main reason is continuous rainfall from February to June '10, and the lumber collection walkway was severely damaged, causing timber production to drop drastically. Lumber production and MDF production dropped by about 30% compared to the same period last year. Recovery is expected in the second half of the year. Estimated earnings per share were $0.01 for 10 years and $0.04 for 11 years. An investment rating of “Prudent Recommendation - A” was given: The company is one of the first model enterprises for national collective forest rights reform, and the company's “forestry scale per market value” and harvesting scale are in a leading position in the market. Although the performance is not ideal due to some reasons of forestry development itself, it is more sensitive to major policy changes in future forest rights reform and forestry development. In terms of transactional opportunities and “size per market value”, Yongan Forestry is the main allocation choice for forestry companies. Risk warning: The benefits of the company's production of MDF in the third quarter and VAT rebates are prerequisites for not losing results for the full year of 10 years. The company lost money in '09, and if it continues to lose money for 10 years, it will just be disposed of by ST.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment