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【天相投资】珠海中富(000659):公司将受益于行业回暖

天相投資 ·  Aug 29, 2008 00:00  · Researches

From January to June 2008, the company achieved operating income of 1,541 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.15%; total profit of 104 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.75%; net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 4.83 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.23%, and earnings per share of 0.07 yuan. Cost pressure has led to a decline in the company's profitability. The year-on-year increase in revenue achieved during the reporting period was due to an increase in production and sales volume in the company's main business, the beverage packaging industry. The main reason for the year-on-year decline in total profit was that the company's comprehensive gross margin fell by 1.73 percentage points year-on-year due to the increase in production costs and labor costs. Furthermore, the slight increase of 0.26 percentage points in the period's expenses ratio and the sharp decrease in non-operating income were also one of the reasons for the decline in the company's total profit. The main reason why the company's net profit declined faster than total profit in the first half of the year was that the corporate income tax rate increased by 3.66 percentage points over the same period last year due to the expiration of corporate tax incentives. The plastic packaging industry has reached an inflection point. After experiencing a concentrated release of production capacity in 2005, China's plastic packaging industry basically restored the balance between supply and demand in the market in 2007. Judging from the gross margin of the company's plastic packaging business, after bottoming out in 2005, the gross margin level has returned to more than 10%, and there is a gradual upward trend. We believe that the signs of the industry's recovery have basically been confirmed, and the company's plastic packaging business will benefit from this in the future. Foreign holdings may become a promising future: In September 2007, the company's former controlling shareholder, Zhuhai Zhongfu Group, transferred 29% of its shares to the Asian bottle industry at a price of 8.27 yuan. At the same time, Asia Bottle Industry promised not to transfer its shares for 3 years. The actual controller of the Asian bottle industry is CVC Asia Pacific Fund. CVC Asia Pacific Fund is one of the world's most famous international private equity funds. We believe this move will benefit the long-term development of the company. The company is expected to benefit from the mature management system of the Asian bottle industry and CVC's advanced investment philosophy. Judging from the current state of the company's operations, the company has already made adjustments at the level of internal governance and management. Based on the purchase price of 8.27 yuan for the Asian bottle industry, combined with the company's current price, we are optimistic that foreign holdings may drive the company's performance to a breakthrough in the future. Risk warning: 1. The company's plastic packaging business has a high concentration of major customers. 2. Risk of price fluctuations of raw materials. The company's main business is polyester chips, the raw material for PET bottles, which are petroleum derivatives. Fluctuations in crude oil prices will affect the company's production costs. Earnings forecasts and ratings. We expect the company's EPS for 08, 09, and 10 years to be 0.14 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.20 yuan, respectively. The corresponding company's dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2008 was 31 times, maintaining the company's “neutral” investment rating.

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