The valuation was on the high side and was downgraded to "neutral". Since 11Q4, the weak macro demand coupled with the psychological impact of a series of food safety accidents on consumers, the growth of the soft beverage industry is slightly weak. The company's production capacity expanded significantly in 10-11 years, and in the case of depressed downstream orders, capacity utilization decreased significantly, which significantly dragged down the gross margin performance. 11Q4 and 12Q1 both reported quarterly losses. We expect the company's EPS in 12-13 years to be 0.07 yuan and 0.10 yuan respectively, and the current stock price (4.29 yuan) corresponds to 61 times and 43 times the PE of the company in 12-13 years, respectively. Compared with Zijiang enterprises, which belong to the same PET packaging, the valuation is obviously on the high side. In the short term, the fundamental point of view is not good and the stock price rose greatly due to the speculation of the theme. Downgrade to "neutral".
The performance of the annual report is basically in line with expectations. In the past 11 years, due to the weak domestic demand and the impact of the plasticizer storm, some downstream sales have been affected, resulting in a slight drop in the company's revenue growth: the annual operating income reached 3.611 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9% over the same period last year. Due to the high prices of the main raw materials PET slices and PE films, coupled with rising labor costs, the company's profits have been significantly squeezed, resulting in a net profit of 45.4053 million yuan (belonging to shareholders of listed companies), a sharp drop of 68.7% compared with the same period last year, corresponding to EPS0.04 yuan, which is basically in line with our expectations.
The net cash flow generated by operating activities per share is 0.33 yuan. The distribution plan is 0.1 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
11Q4 went into "habitual shock" again. Q4 is a traditional off-season in the industry, while the overall macro demand in 11 years is relatively weak, resulting in a sharp drop in 11Q4 revenue from 38.6% to 658 million yuan from the previous month; due to low capacity utilization, resulting in a high depreciation drag, gross profit margin fell sharply to 11.3% (vs11Q320.1%).
The management expense rate reached 12.8% again at the end of the year, coupled with the asset impairment loss of 16.5043 million yuan (mainly the impairment of fixed assets), resulting in a substantial loss of 66.9142 million yuan for 11Q4. The company's cumulative impairment loss on fixed assets in 2009-11 amounts to 25.2224 million yuan, which is expected to be related to its relatively aggressive depreciation policy.
Beverage packaging products are still the company's main products, H2 gross profit margin decreased significantly, and the concentration of customers downstream of the company is relatively high. Beverage packaging products still contribute to the company's main revenue and profit (75.6% of revenue and 89.8% of operating profit in 11 years), weak macro demand for 11H2 and a drag on depreciation, and gross profit margin fell significantly to 19.7% from 24.2% of 11H1. The concentration of customers downstream of the company is still high, with customers belonging to Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo Inc and unified systems accounting for more than 71.6% of the company; in addition to the stable relationship with major customers, the company is also actively opening up more new customers. at present, it has reached a stable supply relationship with Danone, Jianlibao and China Resources Yibao.
Capital-intensive industries, cash flow pressure, plans to ease the cash flow pressure in the form of medium-term bills and corporate bonds. Due to the need to follow the intensive distribution points downstream, resulting in higher capital expenditure, the soft drink packaging industry, as a capital-intensive industry, is facing greater cash flow pressure. In 2011, the company plans to issue 1.18 billion yuan of medium-term notes and 1.18 billion yuan of corporate bonds, which are mainly used to repay existing bank loans and replenish liquidity. Among them, the medium-term note has been registered and the first tranche was successfully issued on March 27th, 2012, raising 590 million yuan; the application for corporate bonds is under examination and approval.
The quarterly results were lower than expected. The company also released its 12-year quarterly report. 12Q1 achieved operating income of 708 million yuan, due to weak orders in the downstream soft drinks industry and 12 years of Spring Festival stock in advance, revenue fell 13.4% compared with the same period last year. Gross margin was also dragged down, falling to 15.0 per cent year-on-year (vs11Q121.2%). While the company's expense rate remains high, especially the financial expense rate of the increase in debt scale has increased from 5.2% of 11Q1 to 6.9%, and the overall period expense rate has increased from 13.4% of 11Q1 to 15.8% of 12Q1.
As a result, 12Q1 lost 15.0742 million yuan in a single quarter, down 148.8% from the same period last year, which is lower than we expected. This is also the first time that the company has suffered a loss in the first quarter after listing.
Core hypothetical risk: affected by macro and consumer psychology, downstream beverage orders remain depressed.