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【兴业证券】泰达股份:关注参股金融公司与土地一级开发

興業證券 ·  Oct 12, 2007 00:00  · Researches

  The warming of the capital market has led to an explosive increase in the profits of the company's participation in financial companies, and investment income forms the company's main source of profit. Among them, the company's shareholders' meeting on October 9 passed a bill to continue to increase its holdings of Bohai Securities. The shareholding ratio will reach 32.78%, which will further promote the growth of the company's future performance. The total transaction volume of Bohai Securities in the first three quarters of 2007 in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 461 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6 times over the previous year. We expect its net profit in 2007 to reach 1.1 billion yuan. Meanwhile, after management adjustments, Northern International Trust began re-issuing trust products at the end of 2006 and entered a period of growth in 2007, but was greatly affected by the expiration of previous trust products. It is expected that the size of its fiduciary assets will enter a period of rapid growth in 2008. Meanwhile, Northern International Trust's self-operated business also benefited from a warmer capital market, and experienced explosive growth, which became its main profit growth point. Since the company uses a cost method for accounting for Northern International Trust's investments, it is currently impossible to predict its dividend situation. The first-level land development business deserves even more attention. The company currently has real estate projects mainly in Tianjin, Nanjing and Yangzhou. Among them, after Cathay Pacific Hang Seng developed the R1 plot in Tianjin at the beginning of the year, the final R5 plot is also looking for partners. TEDA Urban Development, which holds 47.06% of the company's shares, mainly assumes the role of first-level land development. At present, the actual controller of the company, TEDA Holdings, has obtained first-class land development rights for the coastal leisure tourism area in Tianjin's Binhai New Area. The total planned area is about 150 square kilometers, including about 75 square kilometers of land and sea areas. The company's Nanjing project uses regional development as the main model, and the Toleca project has been quite successful. The TOLEGIA project will enter the peak of annual settlement in the 4th quarter of '07. Looking at the longer term, the regional development model and its success stories have paved the way for the company to expand into other regional markets, such as Yangzhou Guangling New Town. Waste-to-energy generation is relatively stable. It is estimated that the Shuanggang power plant will dispose of about 400,000 tons of garbage throughout 2007, achieve 100 million kilowatt-hours of feed-in electricity, and generate revenue of about 120 million yuan. Furthermore, we will continue to monitor the construction of the Guanzhuang Waste Treatment Plant, which is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2008. Revenue from the company's thermal insulation materials declined due to falling orders, and at the same time, the relocation, expansion, and expansion of production capacity is expected to achieve profit in 2008, and there may be negative growth throughout 2007. The company's main business profit is likely to decline in 2007. The sale of the company's greening assets and the right to operate the Binhai Bridge led to a decline in the company's operating income in 2007. Related depreciation and amortization led to an increase in the company's management expenses. At the same time, the company's financing scale expanded, leading to a sharp increase in financial expenses over the same period last year. The company's earnings per share for 2007, 08 and 09 are estimated to be $0.24, $0.45, and $0.54, respectively, and are currently within a reasonable valuation range. Considering that the company may be a financial asset integration platform under TEDA Holdings, a recommended rating was given.

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