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【中信建投证券】绵世股份2011年中报简评:短期业绩爆发式增长确定,看好公司中长期发展

中信建投證券 ·  Aug 16, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Brief review 1. The land receivable price for the 133 acres of land in Chengdu recovered during the reporting period was 248.9651 million yuan, which was the main contributor to the net profit of the current period. For the first-level land development project in Baohe Township, Chengdu, the company currently has two plots of land that have been auctioned but have not recovered (or completely) the land price. One is a 133-acre plot sold at auction in September 2007; the other is an 82-acre plot sold at auction in December 2009. The former had accounts receivable totaling 425.7962 million yuan, and in 2008, a bad debt provision of 255.4777 million yuan was accrued. In the first half of 2011, the project company received 248.9651 million yuan in land prices for 133 acres of land, and transferred back bad debts of 195.2665 million yuan in mid-2011, which is the main contributor to the current net profit. Due to the strength of Sichuan Blue Light Group, the winner of the 133-acre plot, the plot is currently being developed on a rolling basis. Therefore, we think it is more likely that the remaining accounts receivable of the plot of 17,68311 million yuan will be recovered one after another in the following years, which will not only increase the company's cash flow, but also recover the corresponding bad debts and prepare 62.2112 million yuan, increasing the company's profits. Furthermore, there is currently no risk that the land price of 82 acres of land sold in December 2009 will not be recovered; income can be confirmed in 2011 or 2012. 2. The adjustment of the time for confirming the investment income of the Sino-Singapore Mianshi Company is not harmful. Since the confirmation period for the investment income of the Sino-Singapore Mianshi Company of 38,5933 million yuan was changed from the first quarter of 2011 to the first half of 2010, the company's net profit for the first quarter of 2011 decreased accordingly, affecting the company's earnings per share of about 0.1 yuan in 2011. Although this adjustment reduced the company's earnings per share in 2011, it had no impact on the company's operations and cash flow, and the adjustment amount was small, so it did not hurt anything. 3. The development of the fast food industry is going step by step, and speeding up the number of stores will become a profit growth point. As of 2011/6, there were 13 “Burger King” stores (including 7 in Beijing and 6 in Shenzhen), 2 “Sevenana” brand stores, and preparations for opening several stores are underway. The company plans to rapidly increase the number of stores, thereby quickly forming a scale effect for the brand. We continue to be optimistic about the development of the company's fast food industry. 4. The company's short-term performance has exploded, making it more optimistic about the company's medium- to long-term development. The high growth of the company's performance in 2011 is a foregone conclusion. The two first-level development projects in the Baohe Township plot in Chengdu, the Huangpu chemical plot in Guangzhou, and the second-level development project with a construction area of 530,000 square meters in Pixian County in Chengdu have provided a strong guarantee for the company's performance over the past three years, and the steady growth in the company's performance is sustainable. The company's current main business development strategy for real estate development and fast food chain management is clear. As of 2011/6/30, the company's balance ratio was only 21.61%, and there were no long-term or short-term loans, making it unique among listed real estate companies. The company has a cash account of about 600 million yuan and is fully capable of seizing opportunities for expansion in this round of industry adjustments. We are optimistic about the medium to long term development of the company. 5. Profit forecast and investment recommendations Under the settlement schedule assumed in the table below, we conservatively expect the company's earnings per share for 2011-2013 to be 0.655 yuan, 0.799 yuan, and 0.638 yuan respectively, maintaining the buying rating.

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