Event: the company announced that it intends to jointly set up Tianjin Feixuan Fan Technology Co., Ltd. with Tianjin Feixuan and Baoding heavy Industry (002552). The company contributed 51.426 million yuan, accounting for 36% of the shares, and Baoding heavy Industry contributed 48.574 million yuan, accounting for 34% of the shares. Tianjin Feixuan contributed 42.85 million yuan with its patents and proprietary technology use rights 30% of the shares (Tianjin Feixuan is the first high-tech enterprise engaged in the research and development and promotion of magnetic bearing technology in China, and it is also the only independent research and development with the intellectual property rights of the overall core technology of magnetic bearings. And has been successfully applied in many fields).
Comments:
Enter into the field of magnetic levitation blower. In the future, the main business of the joint venture company is to develop and manufacture high-speed and high-efficiency integrated fan equipment, assemble, produce, debug and sell maglev motors. According to the information disclosed by the company, the target company's maglev blower project is expected to invest about 486.39 million yuan, of which 101.7 million yuan will be invested in construction, which will be invested in two phases. After the completion of the project, we will strive to achieve 200 units per set in 2015, with a sales income of 150 million yuan, and is expected to reach 3000 units per set by 2019, with a sales income of 1.5 billion yuan, and strive to become a leader in the field of magnetic levitation blowers and even in the application field of magnetic levitation technology.
The downstream application of the blower is mainly concentrated in sewage treatment. Sewage treatment is the key application field of the blower, which is mainly used in the aeration link of the sewage treatment plant, which refers to the process of forced transfer of oxygen in the air to the liquid, its purpose is to obtain enough dissolved oxygen. The energy consumption of this link accounts for about 50-60% of the energy consumption of the whole plant, and the selection of efficient and energy-saving fans will reduce the total energy consumption of each sewage treatment plant by 15-30%. At present, the mainstream aeration blowers in the market are: Roots blower, low-speed multi-stage centrifugal blower, single-stage high-speed centrifugal blower, air levitation centrifugal blower and magnetic levitation centrifugal blower. The market competition is fierce. The specific comparison is shown in figure 1.
Calculation of market capacity of blower. Take the sewage treatment industry as an example, it is conservatively estimated that the annual increase of 5 billion tons of sewage treatment will require an increase of 13.7 million cubic meters per day. According to the treatment capacity of every 10,000 cubic meters per day, the demand of 100Kw blower for sewage treatment is about 2000 100Kw blower (practical application 2 standby 1). If the current processing capacity of 150 million cubic meters per day is calculated, the installed capacity is equivalent to about 22500 100Kw blowers, which are low-end blowers that need to be upgraded according to energy saving and emission reduction requirements of more than 50%. In the future, only the domestic sewage treatment industry needs to replace and update the market, equivalent to about 11250 100Kw energy-saving and environmental protection blowers, worth about 8 billion yuan, with great potential in both the new market and the alternative market.
The company has taken the first step in business transformation. The company's current products are basically based on the platform of Maoming Petrochemical, the existing business can only provide the company with a basis for performance and cash flow. Judging from the example of polypropylene, it is impossible for China Petroleum & Chemical Corp to continue to rely on Maoming Petrochemical's platform for business expansion in the future. Therefore, if the company wants to develop, it must carry out business transformation. Through the company's recent announcement, including the replacement of the general manager and other senior executives, we can see the urgency and direction of the business transformation requirements of major shareholders. The maglev blower is expected to be only the beginning of the company's transformation project. It is suggested that we should continue to pay attention to the direction of the company's business transformation in the future. At the same time, the company's financial situation is good. At present, the company's asset-liability ratio is only 25.27%, and there is a large room for financial leverage.
Profit forecast and rating: we expect the company's operating income from 2014 to 2016 to reach 37.38,40.38 and 4.354 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 15.2%, 8% and 7.8% over the same period last year. The net profit belonging to the parent company is 0.84,0.89 and 98 million yuan respectively, and the earnings per share are 0.16,0.17,0.19 yuan respectively. The dynamic PE corresponding to the closing price of November 17, 2014 (7.39yuan / share) is 46 times, 43 times and 39 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk factors: macroeconomic downside risks; the supply of polypropylene raw materials can not be solved; the upgrading of oil products quality is not up to expectations.