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【信达证券】新大洲A首次覆盖报告:原有业务稳增长,新涉业务提估值

信達證券 ·  Sep 12, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Summary of this issue: Coal industry: Profitability is strong, and Shengli Mining brings growth. The company currently produces about 3 million tons of coal per year, with good coal quality and low cost. Against the backdrop of continuing falling coal prices, it still maintains a gross profit margin of more than 50%. Currently, the company's new Shengli mine and Baiyinchagan coal mine with an annual output of 1.2 million tons are still under construction. It is expected that they will contribute production in 2015 and 2016 respectively, and the entire group's production capacity will reach 5 million tons at that time. With the commissioning of new mines and the elimination of old mines, there is much room for improvement in the company's profitability and output. Motorcycle industry: Joint venture brands have obvious advantages, and profits have entered a period of stability. The production capacity of Honda motorcycles in the new continent is 1 million units/year. It has basically reached saturation in recent years, production and sales are stable, and profits are relatively stable. Although the production and sales volume of the entire motorcycle market is currently declining, the company's share of the overall market with its joint venture brand advantage continues to rise. We expect that the company's motorcycle production and sales volume may continue to be stable. High-end manufacturing sector: aviation manufacturing and storage technology, increasing profits in the yacht business. The company has developed a new continent of Chinese aviation with China Airlines, and has comprehensive joint venture cooperation with Italy's San Lorenzo in the yacht industry. China Airlines Xindazhou is mainly engaged in aircraft parts manufacturing, and is expected to contribute profits as early as 2017 and 2018; the yacht business may surprise the company with performance at any time as publicity is in place and the market gradually matures. Profit forecast and investment rating: We forecast that the company's 2014-2016 EPS will be 0.16, 0.19, and 0.23 yuan/share, respectively, and the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratio (share price of 4.98 yuan) is 32, 26, and 21 times, respectively. In view of the company's strong involvement in high-end manufacturing, and they all cooperate with leading enterprises in the industry, and have broad prospects for future development, we gave the company a “buy” investment rating for the first time. Stock price catalysts: The release of coal business output exceeded expectations; yacht sales exceeded expectations; and the company's projects under construction exceeded expectations. Risk factors: aviation manufacturing and yacht business fell short of expectations; motorcycle market demand declined; coal business fell short of expectations.

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