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【群益证券(香港)】吉林敖东:医药主业发展稳定,人工肝和铁矿盈利前景助推估值提升

羣益證券(香港) ·  Sep 1, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The securities business contributed significantly. GF Securities, a joint subsidiary of the company, is running well, and all businesses rank among the top in the industry. The market share of the brokerage business is stable, and the investment banking business is growing rapidly. Guangfa has strong comprehensive service capabilities and a balanced business structure. After this additional capital is replenished, GF's performance will be further strengthened; GF is expected to achieve net profit of 3.7 billion yuan and 4.5 billion yuan in 2011 and 2012, and investment income in Aodong of 830 million yuan and 950 million yuan. The main pharmaceutical industry is developing steadily. In the first half of 2011, the main business revenue of the company's pharmaceutical industry was 543 million yuan, and YoY increased by 7.5%. Among them, the revenue of proprietary Chinese medicines in the main pharmaceutical industry increased by 15.2%. The net profit contribution of the main pharmaceutical industry is relatively stable. The company's product quality is reliable and has a good reputation, and future revenue growth is expected to remain stable. It is estimated that net profit of RMB 149 million and RMB 163 million will be achieved in 2011-2012, respectively. The prospects for Tadong iron ore and artificial liver projects have boosted valuations. The participating company Tadong Iron Mine is expected to be put into trial production by the end of the year, and full production will be completed after two years. After delivery, it can contribute about 150 million yuan to the company's net profit. The artificial liver project, which was newly introduced in the first half of the year, has a market value of tens of billion yuan; if it progresses smoothly, it will also bring about a significant increase in the company's performance. Although these two projects will not have a significant impact on the company's short-term profits, due to their promising prospects, they are expected to be a driving force to open up room for rising valuations. Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. We assessed each business in 2011 based on pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic situations. The company's valuations were 24.56 yuan, 33.43 yuan, and 44.19 yuan, respectively. Furthermore, the prospects for artificial liver and iron ore projects can provide some support for stock prices. Therefore, we believe that the current value of the company is undervalued, has a high margin of safety, and gives suggestions for buying and investing.

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