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【国泰君安证券】吉林敖东:主业稳步提升,非经常损益驱动增长

國泰君安 ·  Oct 25, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Expansive growth drives significant growth in performance. The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 810 million yuan, up 4% year on year; net profit was 1.87 billion yuan, up 116% year on year. EPS 2.72 yuan, ROE 23.1%. Third-quarter revenue of 258 million yuan and net profit of 1.43 billion yuan, up 0.8% and 371% year on year, -10% and 513% month on month; EPS 2.07 yuan. GF's fixed increase brought one-time revenue to drive rapid growth in performance. The impact of GF and fixed growth is huge. Due to not participating in GF's fixed increase, the company's shareholding ratio fell from 24.78% to 21.03%, which increased net profit of 1.34 billion yuan and EPS of 1.94 yuan in the third quarter. They accounted for 72% and 94% of the profit and loss for the first 3 quarters and 3 quarters, respectively. Excluding GF's fixed increase, the company's results for the first 3 quarters and 0.13 yuan were 0.78 yuan and 0.13 yuan, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 38% and 71%, which is in line with expectations. GF Securities's third-quarter results fell short of expectations. GF's net profit for the first three quarters was 1.56 billion yuan and the third quarter was 217 million yuan, down 43% and 80%, respectively. It contributed 0.56 yuan and 0.08 yuan of EPS to Aodong, respectively, and contributed 72% and 61% to performance, respectively. The main business performed better than expected. The main pharmaceutical industry contributed about 89 million yuan in net profit in the first 3 quarters, up 21% year on year, EPS 0.13 yuan; net profit for the 3rd quarter was about 29 million yuan, down 19% from month to year, and EPS was 0.04 yuan. The subsidiary Yanbian Pharmaceutical obtained the new GMP certification for the first time in Jilin Province; construction of new projects such as enzymes and ginseng is progressing smoothly, all of which will continue to steadily improve the competitiveness of the main pharmaceutical industry. The artificial liver project is still awaiting approval from the China Drug Administration, and it remains to be seen whether a breakthrough can be achieved within the agreed time. The company adjusted its 2011-2013 EPS forecast to 3.05/1.50/1.89 yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 69%/-51%/27%. The corresponding dynamic PE is 9 times/18 times/15 times. Compared to GF, the value is clearly underestimated, and it does not reflect the expectations of artificial liver. Maintain an increase in holdings rating and target price of 33.81 yuan. GF's performance risk has basically been released, and approval of artificial liver will be a catalyst for the company.

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