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【中投证券】紫光古汉:养生精今年仍可望实现稳健增长

中投證券 ·  Oct 29, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The company achieved net profit attributable to the parent company of about 55 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 10.72% over the previous year, corresponding to an EPS of about 0.25 yuan. Key investment points: Business conditions developed steadily in the first nine months. The company achieved sales revenue of about 266 million yuan in the first 9 months, an increase of 4% over the previous year. Net profit attributable to the parent company was about 55 million yuan, an increase of 10.72% over the previous year. Net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss decreased by 7.69% year-on-year, corresponding to EPS of about 0.19 yuan. Net cash flow from operating activities was about $37 million, an increase of 15.16% over the previous year; the increase in the cost ratio in the third quarter was quite obvious. Revenue for the third quarter fell 26.62% year on year, and net profit fell 77.07%, corresponding to an EPS of 0.02 yuan. The main reason why the decline in profit is clearly greater than revenue is that sales expenses ratio and management expense ratio increased sharply by 6.26 and 9.21 percentage points, respectively; health essence will resume steady growth in the fourth quarter. Health essence declined a lot in the third quarter. It is estimated that due to seasonal and commodity control factors, there will be a marked recovery in the fourth quarter, and the growth rate is expected to remain above 10% throughout the year. Looking at the medium to long term, with the strong terrestrial terminal activities of the marketing department, it is expected that sales of health essence within and outside the province by dealers and chain sectors will gradually increase. Furthermore, considering that prices of raw materials have risen year after year, it is not ruled out that retail prices in Hunan Province will rise in the future; Western medicine business conditions need to be improved. The large infusion business is currently still in the loss stage, but sales adjustments are being made. In the future, the focus will be on developing products with relatively high gross profit, such as plastic bottles; recommended ratings. Overall, the company is currently in the stage of business improvement, and the incentive mechanism still needs to be strengthened and improved. We expect the company's EPS for 12-14 to be 0.87, 0.50, and 0.72 yuan respectively (based on the latest share capital), and 0.38, 0.50, and 0.72 yuan respectively after deducting investment income factors from the transfer of Nanyue Pharmaceutical, an increase of about 19%, 32%, and 44% over the previous year, maintaining the recommended investment ratings.

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