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【华泰证券】紫光古汉:短期业绩激励,不改长期看好

華泰證券 ·  Oct 30, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company announced its three-quarter report on October 29: The first three quarters achieved operating income of 266 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, net profit of 55.28 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.72%, of which revenue in the third quarter was 68.55 million, a year-on-year decline of 26.62%, and net profit of 5.21 million, a year-on-year decline of 77.07%, lower than our expectations. Guhan Health's precise control of goods and the suspension of production and maintenance affected revenue: The company controlled 12 health essences in the third quarter (to resolve channel price inversions), and the 20-day maintenance of the Chinese medicine factory in September affected the third quarter results. Considering that the company has now begun shipping and market demand is good (13.5 million more quarterly advance payments in the third quarter than in the middle), it is expected that health essence will resume relatively rapid growth during the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter, and the annual growth rate will be between 15% and 20%. At the same time, the company's application to increase the maximum retail price of Guhan Health Essence is expected to be approved within the year, which is expected to open up a channel to increase the price of health essence and further increase the market space for health essence. We are optimistic about the growth of health essence next year. There was a recovery in gross margin in the third quarter. The company's gross profit margin was 48.94% in the first three quarters, up 1.93 percentage points from the middle of the year, mainly related to the decline in the cost of Chinese herbal medicines and the easing of bidding for large infusions. In terms of expenses, management expenses increased by 22.56% in the third quarter, mainly related to the suspension of production and maintenance trips by Chinese medicine manufacturers in September, but this did not change the trend that the company's management expenses rate continued to decline. The growth rate of net profit slowed in the first three quarters, mainly due to investment income from Nanyue Pharmaceutical last year. Since the company only transferred shares to Nanyue in December this year to confirm the investment income, the discontinuation of production in Nanyue in the first three quarters of this year and the implementation of GMP reform affected current investment income. It is expected that the return of accounts receivable and Nanyue's investment income this year will contribute 0.53 to the company's performance. Profit forecast: We slightly lowered the company's EPS in 12-14 to 0.85, 0.45, and 0.63, respectively, and the main business to 0.32, 0.45, and 0.63, respectively. Considering the growth space of health essence, we maintained the company's “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning: The company's price increase progress is lower than expected

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