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【天相投资】友利控股:氨纶价格大涨,公司业绩大增

天相投資 ·  Oct 27, 2010 00:00  · Researches

From January to September 2010, the company achieved operating income of 1,147 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92.33%; realized operating profit of 131 million yuan, an increase of 1131.38%; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 86.1 million yuan, an increase of 845.78%; and basic earnings per share of 0.21 yuan. In the third quarter of 2010, the company achieved operating income of 374 million yuan, an increase of 3.35% over the previous month; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 25.62 million yuan, a decrease of 25.20% over the previous month; and achieved earnings of 0.06 yuan per share. From January to September, the price of spandex rose like a rainbow, leading to a sharp increase in the company's overall gross margin. In the first three quarters of this year, the company's consolidated gross margin was 18.00%, up 8.13 percentage points from the previous year. Mainly because the increase in the price of the company's products was higher than the increase in the price of raw materials. In the first three quarters of this year, the average price of 40D spandex was 53,000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%; in the same period, the price increases of PTMEG and pure MDI of spandex raw materials were only 19.1% and 5.0%, respectively. Spandex prices pulled back in the third quarter, and the company's gross margin declined month-on-month. In July-September of this year, the company's consolidated gross margin was 16.00%, up 4.86 percentage points from the previous year and down 7.53 percentage points from the previous month. The main reasons are as follows: 1) June-August is the traditional low season for the downstream textile industry. Demand is declining, and electricity restrictions in Zhejiang have not significantly improved market supply and demand conditions; 2) 40D spandex prices rose and fell in June and did not begin to pick up until the end of September. In the second and third quarters of this year, the average price of 40D spandex was 55,423 yuan/ton and 51,379 yuan/ton, respectively, a decrease of 7.30% over the previous month. We expect spandex prices to rise steadily in the fourth quarter, driven by strong downstream demand. In terms of cost, pure MDI was affected by Yantai Wanhua's new production capacity of 300,000 tons during the year. It is unlikely that prices will rise sharply in the second half of the year, and the gross margin of the company's spandex products will remain around 19% in the fourth quarter. Product differentiation builds core competitiveness. After adding 10,000 tons of high-tech differentiated spandex and 2,000 tons of warp knitting production capacity, the company's total spandex production capacity has reached 32,500 tons, making it the fourth largest spandex manufacturer in China. Among them, differentiated spandex production capacity accounts for more than 50% of total production capacity and is in a leading position in the industry. Earnings forecasts and investment ratings. We forecast that the company's earnings per share for 2010-2012 will be 0.32 yuan, 0.39 yuan, and 0.43 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios will be 33 times, 27 times, and 24 times, respectively, maintaining the company's “increase in holdings” rating.

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