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【国都证券】新大洲A:等待白音查干煤矿的开发

國都證券 ·  May 20, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The renovation and expansion of the first and fifth mining headquarters was completed, and the new Shengli mine produced coal in 12 years. The company currently has subsidiaries of Xinxin District 1, Xinxin District 2, Mine 2, Mine 3, and the new Shengli Mine to be built. The renovation and expansion of Xinxin District 2, Mine 2, and Mine 3 has been completed. Full production can be achieved this year, and it is estimated that 1.1 million tons of raw coal will be produced. The new Shengli mine is located in the southwestern part of the old mining area. It has a reserve of 176 million tons and a design capacity of 1.2 million tons. Construction began in May this year, and is expected to produce coal in 12 years. 2. The renovation and expansion of the Yaxing coal industry has been completed. Yaxing No. 2 mine has been closed, and the 900,000-ton renovation and expansion project for mine 1 has been completed. It produced 1 million tons of coal in 2009, and is expected to produce 1.2 million tons in 10 years. 3. “Exploration and mining is a long process” at Baiyin Chagan Coal Mine. The company's 59 Group currently has reserves of more than 60 million tons, plus 176 million tons of the new Shengli Mine, which has fewer recoverable reserves. Meanwhile, the Baiyin Chagan Coal Mine has prospecting rights with 1.3 billion tons of reserves. Although the coal type is lignite, if it can be developed smoothly, it will drive the company's profit to increase dramatically. According to information, development is progressing slowly. Currently, only 10 million tons are being explored, and it is planned that a coal mine with a production capacity of 1.2 million tons will be built, and coal production is expected to begin in '13; after that, 100 million tons of prospecting rights will be transferred to mining rights one after another, and the long-term plan is to build a 245 million ton mine. 4. The profit of the coal business has not increased much in the past two years. The company produced and sold 1.66 million tons and 1.75 million tons of raw coal in 2009, and is expected to produce and sell 2.2 million tons and 2.13 million tons of raw coal in 10 years. Until 2013, the company's production capacity will remain stable. After the completion of the new Shengli Mine and Baiyinchagan, the production capacity will expand to 4.7 million tons, an increase of 110% over the present. However, the company's coal mine production scale is still small. In addition to the fact that the Baiyin Chagan coal mine developed later is lignite, the future contribution of the coal business to the company's profits will not increase much. 5. The motorcycle business still has a lot of room for development. Due to purchasing power and demand for heavy loads, there is a greater demand for motorcycles in the rural market, and under the impetus of the “motorcycles to the countryside” policy introduced by the government in 2009, the places of consumption of motorcycles have changed from cities to rural areas, and sales have begun to gradually increase. Xindazu Honda produced 208,000 motorcycles and sold 215,000 vehicles in the first quarter. It is expected to produce and sell 70.5 million and 745,000 vehicles throughout the year, up 8% and 7% year on year. It is expected to contribute 62.43 million yuan in investment income to the company, an increase of 7% over the previous year. 6. Hidden assets: Land in Hainan has greatly appreciated in value. The company currently has 270 acres of land in Hainan. It is located in the Guilin Ocean Development Zone in Haikou. It is 24 kilometers from the city and 5 kilometers from the Guilin Ocean tourist area. The geographical location is superior. Due to the influence of the development of the tourist island in Hainan, land prices on the island have risen sharply. Using land prices in the same area, we estimate that the value of this plot is about 540 million yuan, and the company can obtain 270 million yuan based on a 50% shareholding ratio. If sold, the removal of sales expenses and acquisition costs can bring a large amount of non-operating income to the company. 7. Profit forecast and rating. It is estimated that the company's 10-12 EPS is 0.21, 0.24, and 0.26 yuan, corresponding to PE 29, 26, and 24 times, and the valuation is 15 times higher than the average for the coal industry and 16 times PE for the automobile industry, giving the company a “short term _ neutral, long term _ A” rating for the first time.

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