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【天相投资】泰山石油:成品油的供应格局影响公司盈利水平

天相投資 ·  Oct 22, 2008 00:00  · Researches

From January to September 2008, the company achieved operating income of 2.187 billion yuan, an increase of 10.06%; operating profit of 203 million yuan, an increase of 55.37% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 145 million yuan, an increase of 53.84% over the previous year; and basic earnings per share of 0.30 yuan. The company expects net profit in 2008 to increase by 100%-150% year on year. The availability of refined oil prices is the main reason for the increase in performance. Taishan Petroleum is Sinopec's largest listed company selling refined oil products. The business area is mainly in Tai'an City, Shandong Province. In the first three quarters of 2008, due to the tight supply of refined oil products, the retail price of refined oil products was at the highest price set by the National Development and Reform Commission. Gross profit increased by 70 million yuan over the same period last year, and the average gross margin rose to 13.1% from 10.65% in the same period last year. Sinopec guarantees the company's stable oil source. The controlling shareholder of the company is Sinopec, which holds 24.57% of the shares. In the first half of the year, when the supply of refined oil products was tight, private gas stations had no fixed oil sources, making survival difficult. The country's 663 private petroleum wholesale enterprises, 2/3, went out of business, 45,000 gas stations, 1/3 went out of business, and lost more than 10,000 enterprises. As a holding subsidiary of Sinopec, the largest refining company in the country, the company has received strong support from the parent company in terms of operation, and has a stable oil import agreement, which guarantees stable oil sources. The regional market dominates, and business volume is rising steadily. Taishan Petroleum's main business area is in Tai'an City, Shandong Province. The company operates more than 140 gas stations locally, mainly located on the main roads in the city and surrounding national highways. The geographical location is superior, the brand advantage is obvious, and the market share accounts for 80% of the region. The company is located in Taishan, a famous tourist attraction in China. There was a lot of traffic in the past. Furthermore, China's automobile ownership is expected to grow at more than 8% this year, and maintain a growth rate of 6%-7% in 2009 and 10, so that consumption of refined oil products will continue to grow. The company will benefit from this, and business volume will rise steadily. Competition for refined oil products has intensified, and the company's profitability in the fourth quarter may weaken. Beginning in the fourth quarter, international crude oil prices declined. Due to the commencement of refineries that had been shut down due to losses in refining, large-scale refining projects of 10 million tons or more by the three major oil giants, and the release of oil reserves for the Olympics, the situation of insufficient supply of domestic refined oil products came to an end, the price of refined oil products fell to a moderate price, competition in the sales market intensified, and gross margin was likely to decrease. Risk warning. (1) Reform of the pricing mechanism for refined oil products in China; (2) Reduced tourism consumption and reduced traffic in Taishan Scenic Area.

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