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【兴业证券】ST四环:北方信托借壳进程加快

興業證券 ·  Dec 28, 2007 00:00  · Researches

The Northern Trust's backdoor process is speeding up. This share transfer is a counterguarantee measure from Sihuan Group to TEDA Holdings. It is a transition period arrangement for Sihuan Pharmaceutical to lay the foundation for the absorption and merger of the Northern Trust in the next step. The backdoor path of Northern Trust is: after Sihuan Pharmaceutical became a clean shell, Teda Holdings coordinated all shareholders of its high-quality financial asset, North International Trust Investment Co., Ltd., to subscribe for additional shares in Sihuan Pharmaceutical with their shares held by Northern Trust. That is, formally Sihuan Pharmaceutical absorbed and merged with Northern Trust; in essence, Northern Trust went to the overall listing of Sihuan Pharmaceutical. The company announced the profit forecast of Northern Trust on December 18. It is expected to achieve net profit of 177.99 million yuan in 2007 and 176.55 million yuan in net profit in 2008. 2007 fell to a level similar to our previous profit forecast, while 2008 fell short of our expectations. 2007 was an inflection point in the scale of asset management in the North. ① After 2 years of restructuring, Northern Trust has in fact only re-sold trust products since December 2006. In 2006, the company's self-operated assets were about 1 billion yuan, and the size of trust assets was 2.13 billion yuan; it is estimated that in 2007, with the sale of pro-trust products and the expiration of old trust products, the size of trust assets will be about 2.5 billion yuan. As new trust products continue to be issued in 2008, the scale of its trust assets is expected to increase markedly. ② The fixed asset operation of Northern International Trust focuses more on investment, which allows it to fully enjoy the development of the capital market, but it also brings relative volatility to future performance. We are optimistic about the progress of the Northern Trust in obtaining a new license. According to the “Administrative Measures on Trust Companies”, the “Administrative Measures on Trust Companies' Pooled Fund Trust Plans”, and the “Notice Concerning Issues Relating to Trust Companies' Transition Periods”, trust companies must handle industrial investment with inherent assets and may issue new licenses after capital meets legal requirements. Since Northern Trust began handling non-performing assets in 2005, there is currently less of a burden. Our valuation of the inherent assets of Northern International Trust is 5.58 billion yuan, and the value of trust assets is 340 million yuan, for a total of 5.92 billion yuan. Since the company's backdoor matter has not yet been finalized, we will not rate it for the time being.

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