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【华泰联合证券】紫光古汉:携帝王之精髓,铸养生之品牌

華泰聯合證券 ·  Apr 24, 2012 00:00  · Researches

After a storm, a rainbow is always seen. Since 2009, the company changed its leadership, strengthened its development strategy in the field of traditional Chinese medicine with “Guhan Health Essence” as the core, focused on solving problems left over from the company's history, strengthened internal management control, and enabled the company to embark on a path of growth again. In 2011, the company's revenue reached 344 million yuan and net profit reached 72.13 million, an increase of 52.98% over the previous year. A wonder in the field of health and wellness. Guhan Health Essence has the potential to become a national health brand. It is a scarce resource in the A-share market, and is worth focusing on. The essence of ancient Han health is taken from “Health Formula”, the health secret of the Han dynasty emperors of traditional Chinese medicine. It has rich cultural heritage and health benefits, and its clinical application in Hunan for more than 20 years has won wide praise and recognition from consumers. In the future, the market space for Guhan Health Essence will be even wider. The market performance of Guhan Health Essence has been good in the last 2-3 years. Tax-inclusive revenue in 2011 has already exceeded 300 million yuan. Considering that the vast revenue of Guhan Health Essence comes from within the province, and that it has a historical heritage of more than 2000 years and a market reputation won over 20 years, the company will also continue to increase the construction of Guhan Health Essence specialty stores and counter systems to maintain the brand image and drive terminal sales to promote the growth of Guhan Health Essence in the province; and the opening of a specialty store in Chongqing has begun the path of promotion of Guhan Health Essence throughout the country; the cooperation with the Three Kings Group in Hong Kong has laid the foundation for the global promotion of Guhan Health Essence, which will continue to grow rapidly in the next few years. Focus on the main business and strengthen control. After the company changed its leadership, it strengthened its development strategy in the field of traditional Chinese medicine and health care with “Guhan Health Essence” as the core, continuously divested non-core assets, strengthened internal control, reshaped accounts receivable management, reduced the company's financial risks, and improved the quality of the company's revenue. Currently, the company's leading product, Guhan Health Essence, basically uses the sales method of payment first, then goods, and the share of accounts receivable in revenue is declining year by year. Profit forecast: Based on the high possibility that the company will successfully sell shares in Nanyue Pharmaceutical, we built a model to estimate that the company's 2012 EPS will reach 0.86, and 2013-2014 EPS will be 0.58 and 0.78 yuan, respectively. Considering the broad market space for the company's Guhan health essence products in the future, we gave Ziguang Guhan a valuation level of 25 to 28 times that of 2012. The reasonable value range for the year without considering investment returns was 13.50 to 15.12 yuan, covering the “buy” rating for the first time. Risk warning: Guhan health essence marketing promotion falls short of expectations

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