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【华泰证券】紫光古汉:告别灰暗历史,重新起航

華泰證券 ·  Apr 9, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company released its 2012 annual report on April 9, 2013: In 2012, the company achieved revenue of 363 million yuan, an increase of 5.8% over the previous year, and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 138 million yuan, an increase of 90.76% over the previous year. EPS was 0.62, slightly lower than our expectations. The main reason was that the company's price adjustments for carefully controlled health products slowed in the third quarter, health essence revenue and Western medicine losses increased. The company's profit distribution plan for 2013 was to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares. Say goodbye to dark history and set sail again: In March 2013, the company received a penalty decision issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding the company's irregularities before 2009, marking the company's official farewell to a period of dishonorable history. Since changing its leadership in 2009, the company has solidified its development strategy focusing on traditional Chinese medicine health care with “Guhan Health Essence” as the core, focusing on solving problems left over from the company's history, gradually divesting non-core assets, and strengthening internal management control. The company has embarked on a new path of growth. From a loss of 88 million yuan in 2009 to a net profit of 137 million yuan in 2012, the company ushered in a new beginning. The company will focus on increasing the promotion of health essence within the province and beyond, which is worth looking forward to. In 2012, the company focused on improving health essence channels with insufficient profit margin, and the revenue growth rate slowed down: the company expected to achieve revenue of 260 million yuan in 2012, an increase of 5% over the previous year, which is a slight slowdown. The main reason is that the company controlled and adjusted the prices of 30 health essences in the third quarter. After unified delivery in October, the difference between terminal sales price and factory price increased, channel profits were increased, and channel and terminal enthusiasm were enhanced. In December, we discovered through pharmacy research that the current price system for 30 health essences is healthy, indicating that the company's current product control successfully solved the price inversion of 30 health essences, and channel profits were effectively guaranteed. The company's sales focus this year is still to drive sales in the provincial market and gradually adjust the price system for 12 health essences. With regard to markets outside the province, the company is more cautious and is still in the early promotion period. We conservatively expect the revenue growth rate of health essence to return to around 15% in 2013. The increase in majority shareholders' holdings shows confidence: The company announced in December 2012 that Ziguang Group or Ziguang Group's concerted actors plan to increase their holdings of the company's shares within the next 12 months, with a minimum cumulative increase of not less than 1 million shares and a maximum of 5 million shares. Considering that after the company disposed of Nanyue Pharmaceutical Factory, efforts are being made to promote the return of the value of Guhan Health Essence and promotion within and outside the province, and Guhan Health Essence has the potential to become a major health brand. The increase in shareholders' holdings shows their optimism about the future of Guhan Health Essence, and also strengthens our confidence in the company's development over the next 2-3 years. Profit forecast: We adjusted the company's 2013-2015 EPS to 0.24, 0.32, and 0.41, respectively. Considering the regional brand value of health essence and market space within and outside the province, we maintained the company's “gain” rating. Risk warning: Health essence promotion falls short of expectations

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