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【华泰联合证券】紫光古汉:经营向好,等待薄发

華泰聯合證券 ·  May 31, 2012 00:00  · Researches

There is a high possibility that the price of Guhan Health Essence will increase during the year. The company has reported to the Hunan Provincial Bureau of Commodity Prices that the highest retail price of Guhan Health Essence has been adjusted. The adjustment of the best-selling oral liquid is quite large, and it is expected that there is a high possibility that the price will increase within the year. On the one hand, the price increase of Guhan Health Essence can open up profit margins for the product, and on the other hand, it can also change the “passive sales” situation of products at terminals in Hunan Province, increase channel profits, and further increase sales volume of Guhan Health Essence in Hunan. The construction of the Guhan Health Essence specialty store and counter system will be accelerated. Currently, the company has 10 Guhan health essence specialty stores and more than 40 counters. In June, the company will open one in Hunan and one in Guangdong. Meanwhile, in July of this year, the company will set up a sales branch, which will shorten the time for each specialty store to apply for GSP certification separately and speed up the construction of the Guhan health chain. Furthermore, Hunan Minshengtang also took the initiative to propose to the company to build 6 more counters this year (there were 6 last year), and is currently in the stage of site selection negotiations. The construction of a system of specialty stores and counters will also further increase the sales volume of Guhan Health Essence in the province. There is a steady layout outside of the province, and we are still waiting for thin hair. Some agents outside the province are very interested in Guhan Health Essence, and there has been an increase in the number of consulting agents with companies recently. However, the company is slightly cautious about promoting Guhan Health Essence outside of the province. Currently, it is only making steady preparations before promotion outside the province to pave the way for the national promotion of Guhan Health Essence: 1. Building a team to recruit chain directors, marketing directors, and media directors nationwide, has initially formed branches in Chengyu, Hubei, Beijing, and Guangdong, and is gradually expanding sales staff; 2. Building a Guhan health specialty store. Huizhou, Guangdong is expected to open in June, and Beijing singers are still being renovated; 3. Inviting the Chinese personality Meng Peijie, who moved in 2011, as the spokesperson for Liu Liu The commercial is currently being filmed. It is expected that filming will be completed by the end of June ; 4. Negotiate cooperation intentions and counter establishment intentions with large chain dealers. Profit forecast: Our adjusted model predicts that the company's 2012-2014 EPS will be 0.98, 0.54, and 0.72, respectively, and the main business EPS for 2012-2014 will be 0.42, 0.53, and 0.71, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 24.31%, 27.21%, and 33.59%. Long-term view of maintaining the company's “buy” rating risk warning: Guhan Health Essence's price increase fell short of expectations; Guhan Health Essence's nationwide promotion fell short of expectations.

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