share_log

【国泰君安证券】新大洲A:2014Q4盈利下滑较大,2015值得期待

國泰君安 ·  Apr 8, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: Maintaining the company's ownership rating. The company achieved revenue of 950 million yuan and net profit of 76 million yuan in 2014, a year-on-year decline of 7.6% and 27.1%, achieving an EPS of 0.1 yuan, which was lower than our expectations, mainly due to the large month-on-month decline in the company's coal and motorcycle profits in the fourth quarter. It is expected that motorcycle and coal sales will be difficult to improve, and the company's profit forecast for 2015-2017 was lowered to 0.08 (-0.09), 0.10 (-0.11), and 0.13 (0) yuan. Due to the recent decline in risk-free interest rates in the market, the company's emerging business, although it takes time to cultivate, has good long-term growth. Referring to the average of 5, 1.7, 6, and 3.6 times PB for motorcycles, coal, aviation, and yachts, it gave the company 3.2 times PB, raised the company's target price to 8.6 yuan. 2014 performance review: Due to weakening demand in the motorcycle market, the company's motorcycle sales in 2014 only completed 93% of the plan, but high-end products increased a lot, and profit still achieved a year-on-year increase of nearly 30% to 92.83 million. Although coal production met expectations, a sharp drop in coal prices caused coal profits to fall 56% to 24.85 million. As profits from both of these businesses declined markedly in the fourth quarter, judging from current coal prices and motorcycle sales, it was difficult for the company's two main businesses to improve in 2015. Company highlights in 2015:1. The aviation industry has begun production, and trial production of 19 parts is planned, which may contribute profits to the aviation business, faster than market expectations. In the long run, the growth of the aviation business is still excellent. 2. Strive to achieve sales of 3 yachts. Since it takes time to cultivate the private yacht market, it is expected that this business will gradually become a new profit growth point for the company. 3. The sales of electric vehicles are planned to increase by more than 40% (60% in 2014), and the improvement in the profit of electric vehicles is worth paying attention to. 4. The company's motorcycles continue to be skewed towards high-end products and customers, which is expected to increase profit margins, but sales volume may decline. 5. Coal production was increased by 20%, but the impact of falling coal prices on the company was not small. Risk warning: The aviation and yacht business is progressing slowly, and profit contribution time may be delayed.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment