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【招商证券】电力行业5月月报(上):电力紧缺蔓延,倒逼政策出台

招商證券 ·  May 18, 2011 16:09  · Researches

The entire society consumes 1467.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. From January to April, the total electricity consumption of the entire country reached 1467.5 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 12% over the previous year. The monthly electricity consumption in April was 376.8 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 11% over the previous year, and the growth rate increased slightly. Among them, the cumulative growth rates of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries and residential electricity consumption were 3%, 12%, 15%, and 13%, respectively. The country's electricity generation capacity is 1430.5 billion kilowatt-hours. From January to April, the country's cumulative power generation capacity was 1430.5 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 13% over the previous year. Among them: hydropower generation capacity was 155.8 billion kilowatt-hours, up 25% year on year; thermal power generation capacity was 1210 billion kilowatt-hours, up 10% year on year; nuclear power generation capacity was 28 billion kilowatt-hours, up 22% year on year; and wind power generation was 26 billion kilowatt-hours, up 60% year on year. The total number of hours used by the entire crew increased by 21 hours. From January to April, the average utilization time of all aircraft fleets nationwide was 1,530 hours, an increase of 21 hours over the same period last year, an increase of 1%. Among them, the average utilization time of hydropower equipment was 806 hours, an increase of 82 hours over last year, and the increase in utilization hours declined somewhat. The average utilization time of thermal power equipment was 1,734 hours, an increase of 20 hours over the same period last year. The country's total installed capacity reached 948 million kilowatts. By the end of April, the country's full-caliber installed capacity had reached 94.845 million kilowatts, an increase of 11.0% over the previous year. Among them, the installed capacity of hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, and wind power reached 18,484, 71,721, 10,82, and 34.99 million kilowatts, respectively, with cumulative growth rates of 11.5%, 9.0%, 19.2%, and 66.7% respectively. Coal prices in major production areas rose month-on-month, and Qinhuangdao coal stocks continued to decline. On May 16, the highest selling price of 5,500 kcal and Shanxi Youmix in Qinhuangdao was 830 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the same period last month; the price of 5,500 kcal electric coal from Shidongkou Second Plant reached the factory price of 880 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous month. Qinhuangdao coal stocks were 5.952 million tons, which continued to decline from the same period last month. Recent proposals focus on industrial investment opportunities brought about by electricity entering a shortage cycle: (1) Huaneng International and Huadian International, which benefit from electricity shortages, increased hourly utilization, and coal-to-electricity linkage expectations. (2) Changjiang Electric Power, Guodian Electric Power, and SDIC Electric Power, where diversified development has accelerated and the proportion of clean energy has increased dramatically. (3) Jingneng Thermal Power, Jinma Group, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Guangzhou Holdings, which have coal resources. (4) Shenneng Co., Ltd., Shanghai Electric Power, and Shenzhen Energy, which are at the center of the load, have low valuations, and have both offense and defense.

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