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【天相投资】泰山石油:进销差价降低 利润空间缩小

天相投資 ·  Oct 28, 2009 00:00  · Researches

From January to September 2009, the company achieved operating income of 2.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.23%; operating profit of 1.81 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 91.1%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 11.22 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 92.24%; and basic earnings per share of 0.02 yuan. From July to September 2009, the company achieved operating income of 690 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.93%; operating profit of 2.76 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 93.8%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 5.13 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 82.42%; and basic earnings per share of 0.01 yuan. The difference between purchase and sales has reduced profit margins: Taishan Petroleum is a refined oil sales company in the Tai'an region of Shandong. The company accounts for more than 80% of the market share in the region, and its main source of supply is Sinopec, the majority shareholder. The large decline in performance this year is mainly due to the following factors: 1) China implemented a new pricing mechanism for refined oil products this year, with the intention of guaranteeing refining profits, reducing sales profits, reducing the difference between the purchase and sale of refined oil products, and reducing the company's profit margin; 2) Due to the spread of the global financial crisis, demand for refined oil products has declined, especially diesel consumption, which is closely related to industry, the company's sales volume declined markedly; 3) the supply of refined oil products was tight last year. The company relied on Sinopec, the majority shareholder, with stable supply and a high net profit base. The automobile gas station market is vast: The company has added a new automobile gas station. Due to its reasonable geographical location and obvious competitive advantage, the current operating conditions are good, which is higher than the company's overall gross margin level. Due to the characteristics of natural gas and clean energy, the wider the future market, the sooner the company develops business, the larger its market share will be in the future. 2009 was the first year of implementing a new price mechanism for refined oil products. The company's price difference for refined oil products was reduced, and the average gross margin fell in line with our expectations, but the basic domestic demand for refined oil products is still very large, and there are no alternative products with large-scale energy for refined oil products in a short period of time, so the scale of the company's main business operations will be guaranteed. Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's earnings per share for 2009-2010 to be 0.025 yuan and 0.09 yuan respectively, corresponding to the latest stock price of 5.8 yuan. The dynamic price-earnings ratio is 232 times and 64 times, respectively, maintaining a “neutral” investment rating.

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