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【国元证券】泰山石油:业绩波动大,估值高低难辨

國元證券 ·  Aug 22, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Text: The company is a commercial distribution enterprise whose main business is the distribution of refined oil products. During the reporting period, there was insufficient effective demand in the refined oil market due to factors such as a slowdown in domestic economic growth, the international political and economic environment, and large fluctuations in international crude oil prices. In the first half of this year, the company sold a total of 244,100 tons of various refined oil products, a year-on-year decrease of 5.69%, and achieved sales revenue of 195.7667 million yuan, an increase of 0.77% over the previous year, and a net profit of 109.215 million yuan. A year-on-year increase of 40.38%. The company is one of the 44 key enterprise groups in Shandong Province. It has 7 oil management companies, 3 oil depots directly under it, a total reserve of 100,000 cubic meters, an annual throughput capacity of more than 1 million tons, and a retail market share of over 70%. The number of private cars owned locally has also continued to rise, and consumption of refined oil products can be maintained at an average annual rate of 8-10%. The company has more than 80% of the market share in the Tai'an region, so it can fully enjoy the revenue growth brought about by the increase in consumption of refined oil products in this region. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to September 2012 is estimated to be 1.08 million yuan to 22.6 million yuan, an increase of 100%-150% over the previous year. We expect the company's earnings per share from 2012 to 2013 to be 0.05 yuan and 0.06 yuan, respectively. The company's current stock is quite reasonable, and the upward momentum in stock prices is average, giving it a “neutral” investment rating. Risk disclosure: Competition in the refined oil market is intensifying, putting pressure on the company's operations. Affected by factors such as the international political and economic environment and large fluctuations in international crude oil prices, etc., the company's procurement costs in the refined oil market and the difficulty of cost control have increased, etc.

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