Based on Ningbo, expand the third-tier city (Changshu Shanghu Central Garden project model). The company has 12 projects, focusing on Ningbo, Zhejiang (8 projects), Hangzhou (2), Taizhou (1) and Changshu, Jiangsu (1). The total construction area of land reserve planning is about 1.2 million square meters.
The product line is relatively rich, the high end represents Rongan House, the middle and low end represents the heart residence, and the commercial real estate has Hangzhou Rongan Building.
Ningbo commercial housing market is still in the adjustment period, the company Ningbo project de-chemical situation is relatively good. In October 2011, 661 commercial housing units were sold in downtown Ningbo, down 34% from the previous month, and the overall market is still in a period of adjustment. However, the company's Ningbo local project de-chemical situation is relatively good, in October in Ningbo urban sales of the top 10 properties, the company is selling three projects (Ronghe residence, Xinju) are all on the list.
Rich in marketable resources. The company currently has 5 items on sale, including 3 in Ningbo. Rong'an House has sold 24000 square meters, with a removal rate of 17%, with an average price of 25252 yuan per square meter; Ronghe Mansion has 28%, 8000 square meters, with an average price of 23499 yuan per square meter; Xinju sells 12000 square meters, with a removal rate of 21%, with an average price of 15957 yuan per square meter.
Changshu Shanghu Phase III opened 165000 square meters, has been sold 98000 square meters, the average price is about 8400 yuan / square meter. Rongan, Taizhou, D.C., just opened at the end of November. Projects may also open in 2012, including Ninghai project (200000 square meters), Ningbo Butterfly Garden project (52000 square meters), Hangzhou Wangjiang South project (50, 000 square meters), and office buildings of Rong'an Building in Hangzhou (40, 000 square meters). The total resources available for sale this year and next year are about 1.12 million square meters, with a total value of about 15 billion yuan.
The settlement peak began in 2012. The main settlement projects in 2011 are still Shanghu and Qinwan, and it is expected that the company will complete and deliver 4-5 projects in 2012, including Ningbo Ronghe Mansion, Xinju, Shanghu Phase III in Changshu, and Ronghan Mansion in Hangzhou. If the overall sales situation of the commercial housing market improves next year, the company's performance in 2012 may be high growth.
Copy Changshu Shanghu project model and expand third-tier cities. Since the opening of Changshu Shanghu project, the company has been in the forefront of Changshu market sales. The company can copy the successful model of Shanghu and expand new projects in third-tier cities such as county-level cities in economically developed regions such as the Yangtze River Delta.
Profit forecast and rating. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share in 2011 and 2012 are 0.34 yuan and 0.50 yuan respectively, and the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is 17 times and 11 times respectively.
Risk hint: risks such as over-adjustment of the commercial housing market and poor sales of the project.