Investment advice:
It is estimated that the 12-year and 13-year EPS of the company is 0.41 yuan and 0.52 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponds to 16.0X and 12.8X PE respectively, with a slightly higher relative valuation; from the absolute valuation, the NAV is 4.86 yuan, and the current stock price premium is 36%. Taking into account the company's higher-than-expected sales, highly locked performance and flexibility, it is now moving into strategic emerging industries and is expected to diversify, giving it a "recommended" rating for the first time.
Main points:
Ningbo property market transactions fell slightly in the second half of the year, improvement demand began to enter the market. Ningbo property market began to decline in the second half of the year, but by a small margin. Overall, the peak of annual transactions is in June. In terms of demand structure, it is still dominated by rigid demand, with more improved demand entering the market; a small amount of investment demand exists, and the proportion is not high. The lowest interest rate for the first home loan can still be reduced by 15%.
In the first eight months, the company sold nearly 3 billion yuan, and the annual sales are expected to be 3.5 billion yuan, an increase of 45% over 11 years. The company sold 2.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year and nearly 3 billion yuan in the first eight months. Recently, the second phase of Jiangnan and Rongan Butterfly Garden has been newly launched. We expect the company's annual sales to be about 3.5 billion yuan, an increase of 45% over the sales of 2.6 billion yuan in 11 years.
The performance of this year and next year has been completely locked, and the office building project provides performance flexibility. The 12-and-a-half annual report shows that the company received 3.5 billion yuan in advance at the end of the period, which has fully covered our forecast operating income for 12 and 13 years. In addition, the company plans to sell Ronghe Real Estate as a whole, with a preliminary estimate that it will generate a net profit of about 200 million yuan and a thickening performance of 0.19 yuan per share.
Miaoyan-4 lot 2.7 billion land refund can not only be used as future land funds, but also meet the diversified development needs of the company. After the termination of the land transfer contract, the company not only recovered 2.3 billion of the land, but also received loss compensation of 415 million yuan, which is expected to increase profits by about 90 million yuan. At present, the company is still negotiating with the government to refund the land, which can further improve the company's financial situation in the future. First of all, it can develop project resources for the company's real estate business development in the next 3-5 years, focus on developing fast removal rate products with rigid demand, create cost-effective products, and ensure the steady development of the company; secondly, enter into the diversified development of new materials, new energy and other strategic emerging industries to provide financial support.
Marching into strategic emerging industries. Ningbo, Hangzhou, Taizhou and other areas where the company's main projects are located have implemented purchase restrictions, loan restrictions and other control measures, which have a great impact on the local property market and increase the sales difficulty of the company. The company is currently actively exploring new industrial areas, including new materials, new energy and the upstream and downstream industrial chains of real estate. In the first half of the year, the company has set up a wholly-owned new materials investment company to set up a professional team to investigate, inspect and plan relevant projects in the above-mentioned industries, in order to open up new profit growth points for the company's sustainable development and improve the company's ability to resist risks.
Risk hint: policy regulation risk; sales and settlement do not meet expectations.