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【国泰君安证券】广州浪奇:盈利改善超预期、化工电商高增长

國泰君安 ·  Mar 19, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: Maintain an “overweight” rating. We maintained the company's 2015-2016 EPS of 0.26 yuan and 0.49 yuan, and added the 2017 EPS forecast of 0.64 yuan. The target price increase is mainly based on the 2014 annual report performance exceeding our previous expectations by 24%. At the same time, chemical e-commerce sales quadrupled. The stimulus factors for the improvement in main business profits and the high growth of e-commerce platforms mentioned in our previous report were gradually realized, giving us 30 times PE in 2016 and raising the target price to 14.7, which is still 15% from the current stock price. Future catalysts include: the company's main business profits continue to improve dramatically; the reform of state-owned enterprises is advancing, and integration expectations are increasing; and the flow of e-commerce platforms for chemical trade has skyrocketed. In 2014, the company's net profit exceeded our previous expectations by 24%, and a significant improvement in 2015-2016 performance can be expected. In 2014, the company achieved revenue of 5.4 billion yuan, an increase of 33% over the previous year; and realized net profit of 43.92 million yuan, an increase of 37% over the previous year. The improvement in profit stemmed from the improvement in the company's operating efficiency, which was reflected in the control of three fees (in 2014, three fees accounted for 4.19% of revenue, down 1.13 percentage points from 2013), and the reform of state-owned enterprises is beginning to bear fruit. In view of the impact of the procurement cycle, the gross profit improvement brought to the company's civilian goods by the sharp drop in the price of crude oil in 2014 H2 will be reflected in the company's profits by a delay of 6-9 months. We believe that the company's main business profit will continue to improve significantly in 2015-2016 under the restructuring of state-owned enterprises to rationalize interests. Chemical e-commerce platforms grew rapidly, and sales quadrupled. The company is the largest shareholder of Qihua Network (35% shareholding ratio) and has actual control. Qihua Network mainly provides electronic trading services for chemical products in stock. Currently, it mainly targets the long-tail market for procurement by small and medium-sized enterprises. In 2014, the subsidiary achieved revenue of 1.17 billion yuan. Risk factors: The state-owned enterprise reform process fell short of expectations. Risk of inventory loss due to large fluctuations in raw materials.

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