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【天相投资】荣安地产:结转项目体量小,暂陷周期性低谷

天相投資 ·  Apr 19, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Overview of 2010 results: Operating income was 1,250 billion yuan, down 37.24% year on year; operating profit was 341 million yuan, down 68.21% year on year; net profit attributable to parent company was 247 million yuan, down 69.62% year on year; earnings per share of 0.23 yuan. There is no increase in allocations for this year. The small size of settlement projects and low gross profit are the main reasons for the decline in performance. The company completed restructuring in May 2009 and was transformed into a comprehensive developer located in the Yangtze River Delta region such as Ningbo, Hangzhou, and Changshu. The development products are mainly residential and office buildings. The main reason for the decline in the company's performance in 2010 was that there were few carry-over projects in 2010, the size was small, and the gross margin dropped sharply. The projects delivered by the company in 2010 were mainly Rong'an Garden and some properties in Rong'an Qin Bay. The total delivery area was about 123,000 square meters, a decrease of about 30% over the previous year. Rong'an Garden, which was delivered in the first half of the year, is located in Beilun District of Ningbo City. The geographical location is relatively remote, resulting in small profit margins (about 36% gross profit margin), high average price of Rong'an Qin Bay (over 20,000 square meters), but the overall volume is small, and only partial delivery was achieved by the end of 2010. The above factors caused the company's comprehensive gross margin to drop 17 percentage points to 45.5% year on year in 2010. Expansion against the trend will continue unabated, or it may enter commercial real estate. In 2010, the company acquired a total of three plots, including Hangzhou Binjiang, Ningbo, and Jiaojiang, Taizhou, with a total additional construction area of about 270,000 square meters, and project reserves increased by about 23% over the beginning of the year. The company's strategy is to continue developing markets in eastern coastal regions such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Fuzhou, and Qingdao on the basis of current projects, and finally achieve a nationwide layout. Furthermore, the company also has plans to develop commercial properties, using dilution policies to control the risks of a simple residential development model. Period cost control has weakened, and short-term debt repayment pressure is high. The company's annual expenses rate in 2010 was 4.1%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous year, of which the management expenses rate was 3.1%, up 2 percentage points from the previous year. As of the end of 2010, the company's cash and cash equivalents balance was only 165 million yuan, or 25% of short-term loans and non-current liabilities maturing within one year. Net operating cash flow was -2 billion yuan, and the company's short-term payment pressure was high. The real balance ratio is 60%, and the long-term financial structure is at a reasonable level. Profit forecasts and investment ratings. The company did not have many settlement projects in 2011, mainly the Rong'an Shanghu Central Garden Phase II project and the rest of Rong'an Qin Bay. The rest of the projects under construction, such as Rong'an Mansion and Rong'an Home, are expected to be carried over in 2012. We expect the company's 2011-2012 EPS to be 0.33 yuan and 0.79 yuan. Based on yesterday's closing price of 8.41 yuan, the dynamic price-earnings ratio is 25 times and 11 times. Although we are optimistic about the company's long-term growth, it is expected that its performance in the short term will remain average.

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