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【齐鲁证券】ST中润调研简报:增发在即,业绩有望超预期

齊魯證券 ·  Nov 30, 2009 00:00  · Researches

The company's future performance is highly certain, and the cap is expected to be removed after the release of the annual report. After restructuring the company's assets, it became a leading real estate enterprise in Shandong. The three projects it currently owns (Jinan Zhongrun Century City, Zibo Zhongrun Overseas Chinese Town, and Weihai Wendeng Korea Window) can be sold with abundant resources, strong profitability, better sales conditions than expected, large advance accounts, and current project reserves can guarantee the company's development volume for the next 5 to 6 years. The approval of the 2 companies' additional issuance is progressing smoothly. This will be a catalyst for stock prices. The company raised 970 million yuan to invest in Jinan Century City Phase III, Zibo Overseas Chinese Town Phase V, and Weihai Window of Korea Phase III. The three major projects will have good return prospects. According to the previous company bill, the Jinan project is expected to have an after-tax profit of 13.2731 million yuan, with a return on investment of 27%; the Zibo project's after-tax profit of 235.58 million yuan, with a return on investment of 30.77%; and the Weihai project's after-tax profit of 171.847 million yuan, with a return on investment of 23.6%. The company has strong sustainability capabilities. The company will continue to be based in Shandong and actively expand the market in second- and third-tier cities. Currently, it has rich land reserves in the core cities of Jinan, Qingdao, Zibo and Weihai, and is the main real estate developer in these cities. Moreover, the company's land acquisition cost is low, with a land price of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan per mu. The company will increase its construction area next year, and the annual development volume is expected to reach more than 800,000 square meters. In addition, the company also intends to develop resource-based products. Valuation and investment suggestions: At the end of 2008, the restructuring party promised that the company's 2009 and 10-year EPS would not be less than 0.30 yuan or 0.35 yuan. We expect the company's performance to exceed the promises made during the restructuring. Earnings per share in 2009, 10 years, and 11 will reach 0.32 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 0.87 yuan, and the price-earnings ratio corresponding to the previous trading day is 27 times, 17 times, and 10 times; judging from the RNAV valuation, the company's net revalued assets per share is 4.83 yuan, and the current stock price premium is 76%. The company's valuation advantage was obvious, and the company was given a “recommended” rating for the first time.

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