share_log

【长城证券】ST 中润:业绩增长确定的山东地产龙头

長城證券 ·  Sep 21, 2009 00:00  · Researches

At the end of August 2009, we conducted field research on the company. The situation is as follows: Key points: The company has excellent asset quality and a clear business structure, and is a leading enterprise in Shandong. After the restructuring and entry of Shandong Zhongrun Group, ST Dongtai transformed into a high-quality real estate company with the ability to operate sustainably. The company has a land reserve of about 3.5 million square meters, composed of 3 large markets including Jinan, Zibo, and Weihai. The average land price is about 350 yuan/square meter, the land price is low, and the asset quality is excellent. The company has no other unrelated business other than real estate, and the business structure is clear. The next few years will be based in Shandong, intensive cultivation in Jinan, Qingdao, Zibo, Weihai, etc., and the development strategy is clear. At present, with an annual development capacity of more than 500,000 square meters, it is a high-quality regional leading enterprise. We have a large number of existing and quasi-existing houses, and our performance for the next 2 years is highly determined. The company currently has a large number of existing houses (completed) and quasi-existing houses (completed in the first half of '10). According to statistics, it has a total of about 700,000 square meters of existing housing resources, and the corresponding revenue is about 3.47 billion yuan; quasi-existing housing is about 400,000 square meters, and the corresponding revenue is about 2 billion yuan. These resources will guarantee the company's performance over the next 2-3 years, especially existing housing resources, making the company's performance in 2009-2010 highly certain. PE was only 15 times in 2010, and the valuation advantage was obvious. It is estimated that the company's operating income for 2009-2011 was 1,468 million yuan, 2,277 million yuan, and 3,082 million yuan respectively, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 267 million yuan, 437 million yuan, and 615 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 33.6%, 63.8%, and 40.7% respectively; earnings per share were 0.34 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.79 yuan respectively; if the company successfully issued 130 million additional shares, then the diluted earnings in 2010-2011 were 0.48 yuan and 0.68 yuan respectively. Judging from RNAV, the revalued net assets per share, after dilution, were 4.70 yuan. The company's latest stock price is 7.4 yuan, and the corresponding PE for 2009-2011 is 22 times, 15 times, and 11 times; the stock price wants a 64% premium over NAV. Overall, the valuation advantage is very obvious. Investment advice: For the first time, a “careful recommendation” rating has been given. The company is an excellent second-tier real estate company. If the company is given a PE valuation of 20 times that of 2010, the company's reasonable stock price is around 9.6 yuan, which is still about 30% compared to the current stock price. For the first time, the company was given a “careful recommendation” rating based on comprehensive consideration of the company's investment highlights and the risk factors it may face.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment