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【齐鲁证券】ST中润:摘帽在即,山东区域龙头厚积薄发

[Qilu Securities] ST Zhongrun: cap off is imminent, Shandong regional leader rises abruptly based on accumulated strength.

齊魯證券 ·  Mar 23, 2010 00:00  · Researches

After the restructuring, the performance grew steadily in the first year, in line with expectations, and it is basically a foregone conclusion to take off the cap. 2009 is the first complete fiscal year after the company's restructuring, with operating income increasing by 12.35% over the same period last year; total profit by 23.09% over the same period last year; net assets by 52.05% over the same period last year, and basic earnings per share by 0.3069 yuan, up 18.86%.

The company has outstanding profitability, and its sales gross profit margin and net profit margin remain at a high level. In 2009, the company's gross profit margin was 45.16%, and the net profit rate was 23.59%, which was higher than that in 2008. As Jinan Zhongrun Century City Phase II office project with high gross profit margin, Weihai Korea window professional market, Zibo overseas Chinese Town residential project with the highest construction area will usher in the settlement peak in 2010 and 2011, so the company will still maintain a high profit margin.

The debt ratio has declined, but remains high, and the capital structure needs to be improved. In 2009, the company's asset-liability ratio is 80.2%, and the net debt ratio is 25.28%, which is lower than that in 2008, but it is still at a high level in the industry. And in 2009, short-term borrowing increased by 52.05% compared with 2008, non-current liabilities due within one year increased by 55.43%, financial expenses increased by 156.15%, short-term debt repayment pressure increased, and the debt structure needs to be improved. If the company's refinancing plan is approved, it will significantly improve the capital structure and ease the pressure on debt repayment.

Shandong regional market has great potential to benefit from the advantages of regional policies and the process of urbanization. The company's current projects are distributed in the core cities of Shandong Province, including Jinan, Weihai and Zibo and other second-and third-tier cities. These cities benefit from the advantages of regional economic planning, and the potential demand remains to be released. At the same time, the market of these second-and third-tier cities is still relatively stable compared with first-tier cities, and there are no big ups and downs, so there is great potential for development in the later stage. At present, the company's three major high-quality project reserves can meet the company's development volume of more than three years. The company will further increase the land reserve and choose the right time to enter the areas with market potential in the province outside Jinan, Zibo and Weihai. For example, the company has set up a subsidiary in Qingdao and will actively expand the Qingdao market in the future.

Valuation and investment advice: we expect the company's 10 -, 11-and 12-year earnings per share to reach 0.50 yuan, 0.87 yuan and 0.95 yuan, corresponding to the price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times, 10 times and 9 times the previous trading day. In the short term, the possibility of cap removal and refinancing plan approval is the stock price catalyst. in the long run, the company has the valuation advantage and the great potential of the Shandong regional market where the project is located, and maintains the company's "recommended" rating.

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