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【招商证券】深纺织A:偏光片业务十年磨一剑,盈利前景很好

招商證券 ·  Nov 30, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Polarizers are an indispensable raw material for LCD panels, and the technology is very difficult. Polarizers are an important part of the LCD panel display principle. Each LCD panel requires at least two polarizers of the same area. Polarizers are technically difficult, especially polarizers for TFT, which have been mainly monopolized by a few manufacturers in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan for a long time; the company has accumulated more than ten years in the field of polarizers and has entered a period of rapid development. It entered the polarizer industry in '95 and built the first production line. Through continuous adjustment and optimization of processes, new products have been continuously developed, and since 2004, we have achieved continuous profit and entered a period of rapid development. A second production line was established in 2006, and a third production line was established in 2009; TFT polarizers break foreign monopolies and are of strategic significance in improving the domestic display industry chain. Currently, only domestic companies have mastered a full set of production technology for polarizers for TFT. In the next three to four years, unless technology transfer is liberalized, domestic competitors are unlikely to emerge. The company's current technical level can compete with Taiwan and South Korea, and some indicators are better than them; positioning the domestic market, the market prospects are very good. An eighth-generation line with a monthly production of 100,000 pieces requires an area of more than 10 million square meters of polarizers a year. It is now known that the panel project alone requires 120 million square meters of polarizers a year. In other words, the company's broad line still cannot meet the needs of an 8th generation line; this is a large market of more than 40 billion yuan. The brother company Shenchao Technology, which has the same actual controller as the company (plans to subscribe for 150 million yuan this time), currently has a 5th generation line and is about to build an 8.5 generation line. Therefore, the company's market prospects for additional development projects are relatively certain, and future growth potential is also very large; additional development projects have strong profitability, and property management and leasing businesses are growing steadily. The additional distribution project is expected to bring in revenue of 450 million US dollars. Based on a neutral and conservative net profit margin of 9%, it can bring a net profit of 40.5 million US dollars, equivalent to 0.82 yuan of EPS. The property management and leasing business can currently bring in an annual operating profit of 66 million yuan, and is expected to grow steadily at a growth rate of 5% in the future; for the first time, it has been given a “Prudent Recommendation-A” rating. We expect the company's EPS for 09-13 to be: 0.22, 0.17, 0.2, 0.66, and 1.05 yuan, respectively (after 2010, based on additional share capital). Judging from the domestic market size of more than 40 billion TFT polarizers and the fact that the company is the only supplier of TFT polarizers in China, the company's market value growth potential is huge; judging from the fact that the company's TFT polarizer has broken foreign monopolies for many years, the company's additional distribution project is of great significance to the development of the domestic display industry. However, starting from the principle of prudence, and considering that there is still some uncertainty about the company's additional distribution projects, we gave it a “Prudent Recommendation-A” rating for the first time.

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