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【国信证券】出版传媒2011年半年报点评:支柱业务面临困难,盈利下降

國信證券 ·  Aug 29, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Operating performance declined. In line with expectations, publishing media achieved revenue of 655 million yuan in the first half of 2011, an increase of 1.5% over the previous year, net profit attributable to owners of parent companies of 46.53 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%, and EPS of 0.08 yuan. Over the past few years, the company's mid-term EPS has remained around 0.08-0.1 yuan. Although this year's performance has declined, it is basically in line with our expectations. Revenue from the pillar business declined in the first half of 2011. Revenue from the general book business of publishing and media was 282 million yuan, down 11% from the previous year, and the revenue of textbooks and teaching aids in the first half of the year was 219 million yuan, down 3.6% from the previous year. The decline in revenue from the two pillar businesses was the main reason for the slow revenue growth in the first half of the year. We believe that there are two reasons for the decline in the performance of the pillar business: (1) the negative impact of the relocation of the Northern Book City on book sales in the first half of the year (2) the decline in the number of primary and secondary school students in Liaoning and the use of recycled textbooks had an adverse impact on the textbook teaching aid business. Maintaining the company's “neutral” rating We expect the company's 2011-2013 EPS to be 0.25 yuan, 0.27 yuan, and 0.31 yuan, respectively, corresponding to the current PE price of 32 times, 30 times, and 26 times. Considering the gradual decline in the number of primary and secondary school students in Liaoning, the downward trend in textbook teaching aid business will continue. It is expected that the relocation of the North Book City will adversely affect the company's book sales business over the next two years, so maintain the company's “neutral” rating.

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