share_log

【东海证券】新华龙:种下盈利的种子

東海證券 ·  Aug 9, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Profit forecast: Assuming that the company can close the molybdenum ore to reduce losses when it loses money, we forecast the company's EPS for 2012-2014 to be: 0.30 yuan, 0.34 yuan, and 0.41 yuan, respectively. We believe that in a situation where the molybdenum industry continues to be sluggish, the company's PE should be between 15-20 times, and the recommended inquiry range is 4.5-6 yuan. There is a possibility of a shift in supply and demand in the molybdenum industry. The cost of molybdenum in steel smelting is very small, and the price sensitivity is not high, so molybdenum has the characteristic of being a small metal “don't cook for ten years, eat in a pot for ten years.” Currently, due to the downturn in the downstream molybdenum industry, excessive production capacity in the molybdenum industry and other factors, the current price of molybdenum concentrate is lower than the production cost of most mines. According to our statistics, the production capacity of the country's seven major ores with a daily processing capacity of 10,000 tons or more accounted for only 28.41% of the country's production in 2011. Most of them are still small to medium mines. If molybdenum prices continue to hover at a low level, there is no guarantee that construction of small to medium molybdenum mines will begin, and there is a possibility that the supply and demand relationship of China's molybdenum mines will reverse. The company's resource reserves will continue to expand. In addition to the Shuangshan molybdenum mine, the company also has prospecting rights in the Shuangshan area and prospecting rights for the Shimadong molybdenum mine. There is still room for improvement in the company's resource holdings in the future, and there is a possibility that the total mining scale will continue to expand. We believe that although there is little room for improvement in the company's profitability from the current situation, there is a possibility that performance will explode in the future. The company is a private enterprise, and its ability to control expenses is clearly superior to that of Gold Molybdenum Co., Ltd. and Luoyang Molybdenum. If molybdenum resources can achieve self-sufficiency in the future, Xinhualong may become the listed company in the molybdenum industry with the most flexible performance. If the price of molybdenum rebounds, there is a possibility of a blowout in the company's performance. Long-term attention is recommended.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment