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【中信证券】出版传媒2010年报及2011年一季报点评:经营略为平淡

中信證券 ·  Apr 25, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The performance is in line with our expectations: the company achieved operating income of 1.33 billion yuan in 2010, an increase of 2.82% over the previous year, and realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 130 million yuan, an increase of 0.41% over the previous year, corresponding to EPS of 0.24 yuan/share, in line with our expectations. At the same time, it plans to distribute a dividend of 0.30 yuan for every 10 shares, and is expected to achieve operating income of 1.45 billion yuan in 11 years. Revenue for the first quarter was 395 million yuan, up 6.17% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 38 million yuan, up 2.73% year on year, corresponding to EPS of 0.07 yuan/share, in line with our expectations. The distribution business was a bright spot, with gross margin rising year over year: in 2010, book distribution business revenue increased 16.05% year over year; bill printing business revenue increased 11.7 g% year over year; printing materials sales business increased 11.18% year over year; while the publishing business was subject to a continued natural decline in students and a decrease in government procurement of textbooks and teaching aids, revenue fell 16.95% year on year. The first quarter report also showed that the distribution business contributed significantly to revenue and net profit. The company's gross profit margin for the first quarter was 29.4%, up from 25.7% for the full year of '10 and 27.2% in the first quarter of '10. Integrating Xinhua bookstore resources is beneficial to strengthening distribution and chain management strategies: the company's 10-year acquisition of a controlling interest in Xinhua bookstores in cities and counties will help the company use capital as a link to integrate effective resources within the province and promote chain management and marketing. After Xinhua bookstores in all cities and counties were integrated into the company, the main book distribution business was implemented through unified distribution. It is expected that the company's general book distribution volume will be expanded and market share will increase. Cross-regional and cross-ownership capital cooperation can be expected: the company's 10-year cooperation with Tianjin Publishing Group and Inner Mongolia's Xinhua Distribution Group marks that the company's cross-regional capital cooperation has achieved phased results. It is also the first time that a capital-linked cross-regional joint restructuring between China's large publishing and distribution groups has made phased progress. It is in line with the policy direction of “cultivating 67 first-class domestic and internationally renowned publishing media enterprises with assets exceeding 10 billion dollars and sales exceeding 10 billion dollars” proposed by the General Administration of Press and Publication in its “Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting the Reform of the Press and Publication System”. Risk factors: Synergies between industrial chains; traditional publishing being impacted by the Internet and piracy; risk of further integration of mergers and acquisitions; new media development falling short of expectations. Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: Considering that the company is forging ahead by taking advantage of its pioneering listing advantage, we maintain an “increase in holdings” rating, and the profit forecast for 11/12/13 is 0.25/0.27/0.28 yuan. Publishing media (11/12/13 EPS 0.25/0.27/0.28 yuan, 11/12/13 PE 40/3 6/35 times, current price 10.27 yuan, maintaining “increased holdings” rating)

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