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【中银国际证券】大连港:致力于东北亚国际航运中心建设

中銀國際證券 ·  Oct 19, 2012 00:00  · Researches

We recently conducted a survey on the port of Dalian (601880.CH/RMB 2.88; 2880.HK/HK$1.64, holding). Affected by the weakness of the peripheral economy and the slowdown in China's economic growth rate, the growth rate of cargo throughput in China's ports has gradually declined. Against this background, the company's main cargo throughput has maintained a relatively rapid growth rate, outperforming the national average. We expect the cargo throughput of Dalian Port to reach 230 million tons in the first three quarters of 2012, a year-on-year increase of nearly 15.5%, and container throughput close to 5.8 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of more than 25%, and the growth rate is 10-15 percentage points higher than the national average. The increase in the volume of goods and the increase in fees have driven a rapid increase in the gross profit of the company's main business, but due to high financial expenses, we expect the company's net profit for the first three quarters to still drop by about 10% year on year. Currently, the company's A share and H share prices corresponding to the 2012 price-earnings ratio are 19 times and 9 times, respectively. The price-earnings ratio for A shares is high, and H shares are more reasonable; judging from the net market ratio, A shares and H shares are 1.0 and 0.5 times, respectively, and the H share net market ratio is at the bottom of history. However, since the company's short-term performance is still under great pressure, we have kept our profit forecast and holding ratings unchanged for the time being.

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